------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/florianhollenbach/Dropbox/SpatialNotSutva/Replication/Application/log_file_Applications.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:  16 Oct 2018, 10:23:07

. ********************************************************
. ******          Replication Code for              ******
. ******      Spatial Interdependence                       ******
. ******       and Instrumental Variable Models     ******
. ******                                                                            ******    
. ********************************************************
. ******                                            ******  
. ******                9/17/2018                   ******         
. ******     this file runs stata code to estimate  ******
. ******      the models both applications          ******
. ********************************************************
. 
. // requires the following packages:  sg162.pkg, st0292.pkg, st0030 (ivreg2), ranktest
. 
. ///set directory 
>  
. 
. do Table2_Ramsay.do

. ********************************************************
. ******          Replication Code for              ******
. ******      Spatial Interdependence                       ******
. ******       and Instrumental Variable Models     ******
. ******                                                                            ******    
. ********************************************************
. ******                                            ******  
. ******                9/17/2018                   ******         
. ******     this file runs stata code to estimate  ******
. ******      the models for Ramsay 2011            ******
. ********************************************************
. 
. 
. set matsize 11000

. 
. clear all

. // set directory
. 
. // import W matrix and declare as spatial matrix
. import delimited Ramsay_W.csv
(1,263 vars, 1,263 obs)

. mkmat v1-v1263, matrix(W)

. save "W_Ramsay.dta", replace
(note: file W_Ramsay.dta not found)
file W_Ramsay.dta saved

. 
. spmat dta distmat v1-v1263
warning: spatial-weighting matrix contains 324 islands

. 
. 
. /// read in data and set country and time identifiers
> use "Ramsay_data_Table2.dta",clear

. tsset ccode year, yearly
       panel variable:  ccode (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1968 to 2002, but with gaps
                delta:  1 year

. 
. // create year indicator for manual FEs
. tab year, gen (year_)

       year |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
       1968 |         26        2.06        2.06
       1969 |         26        2.06        4.12
       1970 |         26        2.06        6.18
       1971 |         28        2.22        8.39
       1972 |         30        2.38       10.77
       1973 |         30        2.38       13.14
       1974 |         31        2.45       15.60
       1975 |         32        2.53       18.13
       1976 |         32        2.53       20.67
       1977 |         33        2.61       23.28
       1978 |         33        2.61       25.89
       1979 |         33        2.61       28.50
       1980 |         33        2.61       31.12
       1981 |         36        2.85       33.97
       1982 |         36        2.85       36.82
       1983 |         36        2.85       39.67
       1984 |         36        2.85       42.52
       1985 |         36        2.85       45.37
       1986 |         36        2.85       48.22
       1987 |         37        2.93       51.15
       1988 |         36        2.85       54.00
       1989 |         36        2.85       56.85
       1990 |         36        2.85       59.70
       1991 |         37        2.93       62.63
       1992 |         41        3.25       65.87
       1993 |         42        3.33       69.20
       1994 |         42        3.33       72.53
       1995 |         42        3.33       75.85
       1996 |         43        3.40       79.26
       1997 |         43        3.40       82.66
       1998 |         44        3.48       86.14
       1999 |         45        3.56       89.71
       2000 |         43        3.40       93.11
       2001 |         44        3.48       96.60
       2002 |         43        3.40      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |      1,263      100.00

. 
. 
. 
. eststo clear

. eststo: ivreg2 normpolity2 logoilrevpc loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 i.year, robust bw(2)
Warning: time variable year has 4 gap(s) in relevant range

OLS estimation
--------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode

                                                      Number of obs =     1263
                                                      F( 38,  1224) =   110.55
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  195.1046405                Centered R2   =   0.7284
Total (uncentered) SS   =  514.0124959                Uncentered R2 =   0.8969
Residual SS             =  52.98342891                Root MSE      =    .2048

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 logoilrevpc |  -.0456751   .0057534    -7.94   0.000    -.0569514   -.0343987
    loggdppc |   .0653458   .0087664     7.45   0.000     .0481639    .0825277
   gdpgrowth |    -.00363   .0010622    -3.42   0.001    -.0057119    -.001548
    polity68 |   .6658842   .0280318    23.75   0.000     .6109429    .7208255
             |
        year |
       1969  |   -.003633   .0297001    -0.12   0.903    -.0618441    .0545781
       1970  |  -.0141097   .0380353    -0.37   0.711    -.0886576    .0604382
       1971  |  -.0057999   .0345163    -0.17   0.867    -.0734505    .0618508
       1972  |  -.0031775   .0346731    -0.09   0.927    -.0711355    .0647804
       1973  |   .0295231   .0388548     0.76   0.447    -.0466309    .1056772
       1974  |   .0896685   .0394536     2.27   0.023     .0123408    .1669962
       1975  |     .07829   .0381377     2.05   0.040     .0035415    .1530386
       1976  |   .0721204   .0351864     2.05   0.040     .0031563    .1410846
       1977  |   .0577725    .035785     1.61   0.106    -.0123648    .1279097
       1978  |   .0755664   .0368301     2.05   0.040     .0033808     .147752
       1979  |    .170214   .0442008     3.85   0.000      .083582     .256846
       1980  |   .1652724   .0454412     3.64   0.000     .0762093    .2543354
       1981  |   .1475043   .0416372     3.54   0.000      .065897    .2291117
       1982  |   .1414202   .0414312     3.41   0.001     .0602166    .2226238
       1983  |   .1621818   .0437768     3.70   0.000     .0763808    .2479829
       1984  |   .1456602   .0411169     3.54   0.000     .0650726    .2262477
       1985  |   .1526306   .0442949     3.45   0.001     .0658142     .239447
       1986  |    .118972   .0444866     2.67   0.007     .0317798    .2061642
       1987  |   .1280014   .0432174     2.96   0.003     .0432968    .2127059
       1988  |   .1323478   .0428107     3.09   0.002     .0484403    .2162552
       1989  |   .1588985     .04115     3.86   0.000      .078246    .2395511
       1990  |   .2019887   .0429702     4.70   0.000     .1177687    .2862087
       1991  |   .2054968   .0426716     4.82   0.000      .121862    .2891315
       1992  |   .2009796   .0422196     4.76   0.000     .1182306    .2837286
       1993  |   .1689099   .0465816     3.63   0.000     .0776115    .2602082
       1994  |   .1757438   .0472612     3.72   0.000     .0831136    .2683741
       1995  |   .1799417   .0472462     3.81   0.000     .0873408    .2725425
       1996  |   .1905565   .0473016     4.03   0.000     .0978472    .2832658
       1997  |   .1865961    .046892     3.98   0.000     .0946895    .2785027
       1998  |   .1664687    .045242     3.68   0.000      .077796    .2551415
       1999  |   .1926713   .0470751     4.09   0.000     .1004057    .2849369
       2000  |   .2267154   .0496529     4.57   0.000     .1293976    .3240332
       2001  |   .2238106   .0494325     4.53   0.000     .1269247    .3206964
       2002  |   .2266665   .0498421     4.55   0.000     .1289777    .3243552
             |
       _cons |  -.1709684   .0517934    -3.30   0.001    -.2724816   -.0694551
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Included instruments: logoilrevpc loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 1969.year
                      1970.year 1971.year 1972.year 1973.year 1974.year
                      1975.year 1976.year 1977.year 1978.year 1979.year
                      1980.year 1981.year 1982.year 1983.year 1984.year
                      1985.year 1986.year 1987.year 1988.year 1989.year
                      1990.year 1991.year 1992.year 1993.year 1994.year
                      1995.year 1996.year 1997.year 1998.year 1999.year
                      2000.year 2001.year 2002.year
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(est1 stored)

. predict resid, residuals

. spatwmat using "W_Ramsay.dta", name("weights")


The following matrix has been created:

1. Imported non-binary weights matrix weights 
   Dimension: 1263x1263

   Beware! 324 locations have no neighbors



. spatgsa resid, weights(weights) moran


Measures of global spatial autocorrelation


Weights matrix
--------------------------------------------------------------
Name: weights
Type: Imported (non-binary)
Row-standardized: No
--------------------------------------------------------------

Moran's I
--------------------------------------------------------------
          Variables |    I      E(I)   sd(I)     z    p-value*
--------------------+-----------------------------------------
              resid |  0.803  -0.001   0.036  22.021   0.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
*1-tail test



. eststo: spreg ml normpolity2 logoilrevpc loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 year_2-year_35, dlmat(distmat) id(id)
warning: spatial-weighting matrix in distmat contains 324 islands

Performing a grid search.... finished

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  269.77358  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =   271.4878  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  271.48782  

Optimizing unconcentrated log likelihood

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  271.48782  

Spatial autoregressive model                      Number of obs   =     1263
(Maximum likelihood estimates)                    Wald chi2(38)   =  3627.87
                                                  Prob > chi2     =   0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
normpolity2  |
 logoilrevpc |   -.042038   .0035378   -11.88   0.000    -.0489719   -.0351042
    loggdppc |   .0662035   .0053291    12.42   0.000     .0557586    .0766483
   gdpgrowth |  -.0039146   .0009213    -4.25   0.000    -.0057204   -.0021088
    polity68 |    .657761   .0164922    39.88   0.000     .6254369    .6900852
      year_2 |  -.0012499   .0537995    -0.02   0.981    -.1066949     .104195
      year_3 |  -.0117506   .0538021    -0.22   0.827    -.1172009    .0936997
      year_4 |  -.0022032   .0528705    -0.04   0.967    -.1058274     .101421
      year_5 |   .0034351   .0520251     0.07   0.947    -.0985323    .1054024
      year_6 |   .0332624   .0520753     0.64   0.523    -.0688033    .1353282
      year_7 |   .0862334   .0520999     1.66   0.098    -.0158805    .1883473
      year_8 |   .0760248   .0517542     1.47   0.142    -.0254116    .1774613
      year_9 |   .0708182   .0518816     1.36   0.172    -.0308679    .1725043
     year_10 |   .0550158   .0514659     1.07   0.285    -.0458555    .1558872
     year_11 |   .0705872   .0515034     1.37   0.171    -.0303577    .1715321
     year_12 |   .1592569   .0519187     3.07   0.002     .0574981    .2610157
     year_13 |   .1529466   .0519005     2.95   0.003     .0512234    .2546697
     year_14 |   .1347807   .0508365     2.65   0.008      .035143    .2344183
     year_15 |    .127956   .0508162     2.52   0.012      .028358     .227554
     year_16 |   .1488029   .0507145     2.93   0.003     .0494042    .2482016
     year_17 |   .1340801   .0506415     2.65   0.008     .0348247    .2333356
     year_18 |   .1356854   .0506874     2.68   0.007       .03634    .2350308
     year_19 |   .1041807   .0504186     2.07   0.039      .005362    .2029993
     year_20 |   .1151482    .050146     2.30   0.022     .0168638    .2134326
     year_21 |   .1197239   .0502803     2.38   0.017     .0211763    .2182716
     year_22 |   .1438359   .0503516     2.86   0.004     .0451486    .2425231
     year_23 |   .1758494   .0504829     3.48   0.000     .0769048     .274794
     year_24 |   .1767355   .0501373     3.53   0.000     .0784681    .2750029
     year_25 |   .1739806   .0491637     3.54   0.000     .0776215    .2703397
     year_26 |   .1426834   .0489132     2.92   0.004     .0468153    .2385516
     year_27 |   .1497672    .048796     3.07   0.002     .0541288    .2454055
     year_28 |   .1550623   .0487535     3.18   0.001     .0595072    .2506175
     year_29 |   .1662407   .0486178     3.42   0.001     .0709515    .2615299
     year_30 |   .1651223   .0485716     3.40   0.001     .0699238    .2603209
     year_31 |   .1454652   .0482676     3.01   0.003     .0508625    .2400678
     year_32 |   .1706061   .0482053     3.54   0.000     .0761254    .2650868
     year_33 |    .203749   .0487853     4.18   0.000     .1081315    .2993665
     year_34 |   .1989457   .0484635     4.11   0.000      .103959    .2939324
     year_35 |   .2004776   .0486676     4.12   0.000     .1050909    .2958644
       _cons |   -.237434   .0499157    -4.76   0.000    -.3352669    -.139601
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lambda       |
       _cons |   .1729815   .0151627    11.41   0.000     .1432631    .2026999
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sigma2       |
       _cons |   .0376064   .0014988    25.09   0.000     .0346688    .0405439
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(est2 stored)

. matrix b = e(b)

. scalar b1 = b[1,1]

. scalar rho = b[1,41]

. matrix I = I(1263)

. 
. matrix spatialbetas = inv(I - rho*W)*b1

. di trace(spatialbetas)/1263
-.04206299

. 
. eststo: ivreg2 normpolity2 (logoilrevpc=logORDdef2k) loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 i.year, robust bw(2) small
Warning: time variable year has 4 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode

                                                      Number of obs =     1263
                                                      F( 38,  1224) =     6.62
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  195.1046405                Centered R2   =  -0.7874
Total (uncentered) SS   =  514.0124959                Uncentered R2 =   0.3215
Residual SS             =   348.736681                Root MSE      =    .5338

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 logoilrevpc |  -.3581334   .1674555    -2.14   0.033     -.686665   -.0296019
    loggdppc |   .3562448   .1554754     2.29   0.022      .051217    .6612726
   gdpgrowth |  -.0117689    .005184    -2.27   0.023    -.0219394   -.0015984
    polity68 |  -.0051677   .3728168    -0.01   0.989    -.7365984     .726263
             |
        year |
       1969  |   .0699997   .1593706     0.44   0.661    -.2426701    .3826695
       1970  |   .0844239    .216669     0.39   0.697    -.3406598    .5095076
       1971  |   .1385035   .2188071     0.63   0.527    -.2907751    .5677821
       1972  |   .1705023   .2235188     0.76   0.446    -.2680202    .6090248
       1973  |    .289678   .2458127     1.18   0.239     -.192583     .771939
       1974  |   .7188824   .3852426     1.87   0.062    -.0369267    1.474691
       1975  |   .7038356   .3741461     1.88   0.060    -.0302031    1.437874
       1976  |    .765712   .4102968     1.87   0.062    -.0392508    1.570675
       1977  |   .6984879   .3840212     1.82   0.069    -.0549249    1.451901
       1978  |   .7232167   .3854873     1.88   0.061    -.0330724    1.479506
       1979  |   1.067646   .5137592     2.08   0.038     .0597001    2.075592
       1980  |   1.035729   .4992319     2.07   0.038     .0562842    2.015174
       1981  |   .9135955   .4417077     2.07   0.039     .0470074    1.780184
       1982  |   .8743638    .424036     2.06   0.039     .0424459    1.706282
       1983  |    .877161   .4143217     2.12   0.034     .0643016     1.69002
       1984  |   .8578866    .412904     2.08   0.038     .0478087    1.667965
       1985  |   .8440247   .4003767     2.11   0.035      .058524    1.629525
       1986  |   .6081168    .305528     1.99   0.047     .0087002    1.207533
       1987  |   .6519385   .3240122     2.01   0.044     .0162577    1.287619
       1988  |   .5860627   .2940204     1.99   0.046     .0092229    1.162903
       1989  |   .6637084   .3139497     2.11   0.035     .0477693    1.279647
       1990  |   .7881829   .3499207     2.25   0.024     .1016721    1.474694
       1991  |   .7348115   .3245769     2.26   0.024     .0980227      1.3716
       1992  |   .7048848    .311521     2.26   0.024     .0937105    1.316059
       1993  |   .5976296    .277866     2.15   0.032     .0524831    1.142776
       1994  |   .5945621   .2735781     2.17   0.030     .0578281    1.131296
       1995  |   .6232293   .2844804     2.19   0.029     .0651061    1.181353
       1996  |   .7042201   .3149694     2.24   0.026     .0862804     1.32216
       1997  |   .6780401   .3052544     2.22   0.027     .0791601     1.27692
       1998  |   .5325115   .2524388     2.11   0.035     .0372508    1.027772
       1999  |   .6682344   .2971105     2.25   0.025     .0853321    1.251137
       2000  |   .8590689   .3701091     2.32   0.020     .1329505    1.585187
       2001  |   .7626413    .326026     2.34   0.019     .1230095    1.402273
       2002  |   .7518575   .3206734     2.34   0.019     .1227271    1.380988
             |
       _cons |  -.9618293   .4389178    -2.19   0.029    -1.822944   -.1007147
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):              4.452
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0349
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):                7.472
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):          4.344
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hansen J statistic (overidentification test of all instruments):         0.000
                                                 (equation exactly identified)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         logoilrevpc
Included instruments: loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 1969.year 1970.year 1971.year
                      1972.year 1973.year 1974.year 1975.year 1976.year
                      1977.year 1978.year 1979.year 1980.year 1981.year
                      1982.year 1983.year 1984.year 1985.year 1986.year
                      1987.year 1988.year 1989.year 1990.year 1991.year
                      1992.year 1993.year 1994.year 1995.year 1996.year
                      1997.year 1998.year 1999.year 2000.year 2001.year
                      2002.year
Excluded instruments: logORDdef2k
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(est3 stored)

. eststo: spivreg normpolity2 loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 i.year (logoilrevpc=logORDdef2k), dlmat(distmat) id(id)
warning: spatial-weighting matrix in distmat contains 324 islands
note: 37 instruments omitted from the H matrix because of collinearity
      see e(H_omitted) for names of the omitted instruments

Spatial autoregressive model                      Number of obs   =     1263
(GS2SLS estimates)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
normpolity2  |
 logoilrevpc |  -.0878258   .0114479    -7.67   0.000    -.1102632   -.0653883
    loggdppc |   .1075142   .0114504     9.39   0.000     .0850719    .1299565
   gdpgrowth |  -.0049895   .0010219    -4.88   0.000    -.0069924   -.0029866
    polity68 |   .5643723   .0287731    19.61   0.000     .5079782    .6207665
             |
        year |
       1968  |          0  (empty)
       1969  |   .0085342   .0575929     0.15   0.882    -.1043458    .1214141
       1970  |      .0016   .0576383     0.03   0.978     -.111369    .1145689
       1971  |   .0173048   .0567535     0.30   0.760      -.09393    .1285396
       1972  |   .0262053   .0559404     0.47   0.639     -.083436    .1358466
       1973  |   .0692844   .0563868     1.23   0.219    -.0412318    .1798005
       1974  |   .1772311   .0597767     2.96   0.003     .0600708    .2943913
       1975  |   .1661349   .0593739     2.80   0.005     .0497643    .2825056
       1976  |   .1703549   .0603692     2.82   0.005     .0520334    .2886763
       1977  |   .1474467   .0592827     2.49   0.013     .0312548    .2636386
       1978  |   .1646993   .0594337     2.77   0.006     .0482114    .2811873
       1979  |   .2909255   .0636198     4.57   0.000      .166233    .4156179
       1980  |   .2811846   .0631777     4.45   0.000     .1573586    .4050106
       1981  |   .2482256   .0605339     4.10   0.000     .1295814    .3668699
       1982  |   .2368933   .0600344     3.95   0.000      .119228    .3545586
       1983  |   .2551461    .059676     4.28   0.000     .1381832    .3721089
       1984  |   .2394714   .0595421     4.02   0.000     .1227711    .3561717
       1985  |    .239765   .0593642     4.04   0.000     .1234132    .3561168
       1986  |   .1786848   .0566031     3.16   0.002     .0677447    .2896248
       1987  |   .1940233   .0566795     3.42   0.001     .0829335     .305113
       1988  |   .1884912   .0560847     3.36   0.001     .0785671    .2984153
       1989  |   .2206632   .0567028     3.89   0.000     .1095277    .3317986
       1990  |   .2677479   .0578988     4.62   0.000     .1542684    .3812273
       1991  |   .2613185   .0569093     4.59   0.000     .1497782    .3728587
       1992  |   .2543847   .0556197     4.57   0.000      .145372    .3633974
       1993  |   .2121017    .054574     3.89   0.000     .1051387    .3190647
       1994  |   .2176927   .0543561     4.00   0.000     .1111568    .3242286
       1995  |   .2261445   .0545397     4.15   0.000     .1192485    .3330404
       1996  |   .2472064    .055147     4.48   0.000     .1391203    .3552926
       1997  |   .2420299   .0548208     4.41   0.000      .134583    .3494767
       1998  |   .2043036   .0532895     3.83   0.000     .0998582     .308749
       1999  |   .2454275   .0542843     4.52   0.000     .1390321    .3518229
       2000  |   .3012596   .0567715     5.31   0.000     .1899895    .4125298
       2001  |    .283679   .0552907     5.13   0.000     .1753112    .3920467
       2002  |   .2836725   .0553515     5.12   0.000     .1751856    .3921595
             |
       _cons |  -.3298318   .0591395    -5.58   0.000    -.4457431   -.2139205
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lambda       |
       _cons |   .1192726   .0202073     5.90   0.000      .079667    .1588782
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:  logoilrevpc
Instruments:   logORDdef2k
(est4 stored)

. matrix b = e(b)

. scalar b1 = b[1,1]

. scalar rho = b[1,41]

. matrix I = I(1263)

. 
. matrix spatialbetas = inv(I - rho*W)*b1

. di trace(spatialbetas)/1263
-.08835978

.  
. /// outputs table without variable names, change costant lambda to \rho_y, delete rows for year FE 
> esttab using "Table_2.tex", label se star(* 0.1 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) t(3) replace 
(note: file Table_2.tex not found)
(output written to Table_2.tex)

. 
. 
. /// robustness check table in Appendix
> set more off

. eststo clear

. eststo: ivreg2 normpolity2 (logoilrevpc=logORDdef2k) loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 yr*, robust bw(2) first small rf endo
> g(logoilrevpc)
Warning: time variable year has 4 gap(s) in relevant range
Warning - collinearities detected
Vars dropped:       yr35 yr36 yr37 yr38

Reduced-form regression: normpolity2
------------------------------------

Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
Number of obs =                   1263
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 logORDdef2k |  -.0420199   .0068216    -6.16   0.000    -.0554032   -.0286366
    loggdppc |   .0207841   .0064797     3.21   0.001     .0080715    .0334966
   gdpgrowth |  -.0022225    .001177    -1.89   0.059    -.0045317    .0000866
    polity68 |   .7440194   .0246561    30.18   0.000     .6956465    .7923922
         yr1 |  -.1646413   .0492787    -3.34   0.001    -.2613214   -.0679612
         yr2 |  -.1905227   .0528639    -3.60   0.000    -.2942366   -.0868087
         yr3 |  -.1745737   .0514349    -3.39   0.001     -.275484   -.0736634
         yr4 |  -.1740744   .0494734    -3.52   0.000    -.2711365   -.0770123
         yr5 |  -.2175139   .0571981    -3.80   0.000    -.3297311   -.1052967
         yr6 |  -.1651259   .0545802    -3.03   0.003    -.2722071   -.0580447
         yr7 |  -.1042121   .0548533    -1.90   0.058    -.2118289    .0034047
         yr8 |  -.1624812   .0534844    -3.04   0.002    -.2674124   -.0575501
         yr9 |  -.0680204   .0528883    -1.29   0.199    -.1717821    .0357413
        yr10 |  -.1328966   .0509429    -2.61   0.009    -.2328417   -.0329514
        yr11 |  -.1598694   .0522748    -3.06   0.002    -.2624275   -.0573114
        yr12 |  -.1267111   .0556661    -2.28   0.023    -.2359226   -.0174996
        yr13 |    .025891   .0605891     0.43   0.669    -.0929791     .144761
        yr14 |   -.090126   .0551489    -1.63   0.102    -.1983229    .0180708
        yr15 |  -.0578391   .0552955    -1.05   0.296    -.1663236    .0506454
        yr16 |  -.0449648   .0569781    -0.79   0.430    -.1567503    .0668207
        yr17 |  -.1141871   .0528978    -2.16   0.031    -.2179675   -.0104068
        yr18 |  -.0551304   .0554297    -0.99   0.320    -.1638782    .0536173
        yr19 |  -.0742091   .0600806    -1.24   0.217    -.1920815    .0436634
        yr20 |  -.0377285   .0586164    -0.64   0.520    -.1527283    .0772712
        yr21 |   .0041052     .06121     0.07   0.947    -.1159829    .1241933
        yr22 |   .0375544   .0588684     0.64   0.524    -.0779397    .1530486
        yr23 |   .0743616   .0614499     1.21   0.226    -.0461972    .1949204
        yr24 |  -.0030365   .0578439    -0.05   0.958    -.1165207    .1104478
        yr25 |   .0832184   .0589077     1.41   0.158    -.0323528    .1987896
        yr26 |   .0020964   .0596491     0.04   0.972    -.1149293    .1191222
        yr27 |   .0525725   .0603501     0.87   0.384    -.0658285    .1709736
        yr28 |   .0464969   .0598448     0.78   0.437    -.0709128    .1639066
        yr29 |   .0236297   .0607886     0.39   0.698    -.0956317    .1428911
        yr30 |   .0748118   .0619959     1.21   0.228    -.0468181    .1964418
        yr31 |  -.0048498   .0597553    -0.08   0.935    -.1220839    .1123844
        yr32 |   .0624657   .0625131     1.00   0.318     -.060179    .1851104
        yr33 |  -.0093794   .0625962    -0.15   0.881    -.1321872    .1134284
        yr34 |    .069741   .0467035     1.49   0.136    -.0218868    .1613687
        yr35 |          0  (omitted)
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
       _cons |   1.012552   .1540457     6.57   0.000     .7103291    1.314775
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First-stage regressions
-----------------------


First-stage regression of logoilrevpc:

Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
Number of obs =                   1263
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
 logoilrevpc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 logORDdef2k |   .1173303   .0562936     2.08   0.037     .0068876     .227773
    loggdppc |    .936692   .0399398    23.45   0.000     .8583339     1.01505
   gdpgrowth |  -.0266559   .0083966    -3.17   0.002    -.0431292   -.0101825
    polity68 |  -2.091922    .173302   -12.07   0.000    -2.431923    -1.75192
         yr1 |  -1.639658    .475343    -3.45   0.001    -2.572235   -.7070803
         yr2 |  -1.371933   .4804616    -2.86   0.004    -2.314553   -.4293136
         yr3 |  -1.376191    .457503    -3.01   0.003    -2.273768   -.4786137
         yr4 |  -1.226581   .4423367    -2.77   0.006    -2.094403   -.3587587
         yr5 |  -1.015938   .4502786    -2.26   0.024    -1.899341   -.1325346
         yr6 |  -.8294495   .4233741    -1.96   0.050    -1.660069    .0011699
         yr7 |   .1989119   .4371367     0.46   0.649    -.6587084    1.056532
         yr8 |   .3195997   .3953788     0.81   0.419    -.4560956    1.095295
         yr9 |   .2286157   .4102237     0.56   0.577    -.5762038    1.033435
        yr10 |   .2220596   .3769753     0.59   0.556    -.5175298    .9616489
        yr11 |   .3664238   .3494943     1.05   0.295    -.3192505    1.052098
        yr12 |   1.235573   .3446589     3.58   0.000      .559385     1.91176
        yr13 |   .7203482   .3910095     1.84   0.066    -.0467748    1.487471
        yr14 |   .7032685   .3467863     2.03   0.043     .0229071     1.38363
        yr15 |   .5035704   .3312435     1.52   0.129    -.1462976    1.153438
        yr16 |   .4754325   .3186449     1.49   0.136    -.1497181    1.100583
        yr17 |   .6148999   .3041848     2.02   0.043     .0181186    1.211681
        yr18 |   .4112926   .3077976     1.34   0.182    -.1925768    1.015162
        yr19 |  -.1941502    .303646    -0.64   0.523    -.7898745    .4015741
        yr20 |  -.1736516   .3222886    -0.54   0.590    -.8059508    .4586477
        yr21 |  -.4744042    .335106    -1.42   0.157     -1.13185    .1830415
        yr22 |  -.3509965   .3434394    -1.02   0.307    -1.024792    .3227986
        yr23 |  -.1062068   .3443617    -0.31   0.758    -.7818113    .5693977
        yr24 |  -.0391182   .3074087    -0.13   0.899    -.6422245    .5639881
        yr25 |  -.3635268    .327339    -1.11   0.267    -1.005734    .2786809
        yr26 |  -.4364976   .3013674    -1.45   0.148    -1.027752    .1547562
        yr27 |  -.5860048   .3204671    -1.83   0.068    -1.214731    .0427209
        yr28 |   -.488994   .3211117    -1.52   0.128    -1.118984    .1409964
        yr29 |  -.1989961   .3041811    -0.65   0.513    -.7957702    .3977781
        yr30 |  -.4150109   .3282452    -1.26   0.206    -1.058997    .2289747
        yr31 |  -.5989283   .3004258    -1.99   0.046    -1.188335   -.0095218
        yr32 |  -.4079174   .3128619    -1.30   0.193    -1.021722    .2058875
        yr33 |   .3255513    .291023     1.12   0.264     -.245408    .8965106
        yr34 |  -.1646235   .2315719    -0.71   0.477    -.6189453    .2896983
        yr35 |          0  (omitted)
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
       _cons |  -3.413599    1.33362    -2.56   0.011    -6.030033   -.7971649
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
F test of excluded instruments:
  F(  1,  1224) =     4.34
  Prob > F      =   0.0373
Sanderson-Windmeijer multivariate F test of excluded instruments:
  F(  1,  1224) =     4.34
  Prob > F      =   0.0373



Summary results for first-stage regressions
-------------------------------------------

                                           (Underid)            (Weak id)
Variable     | F(  1,  1224)  P-val | SW Chi-sq(  1) P-val | SW F(  1,  1224)
logoilrevpc  |       4.34    0.0373 |        4.48   0.0342 |        4.34

NB: first-stage test statistics heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust

Stock-Yogo weak ID F test critical values for single endogenous regressor:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for i.i.d. errors only.

Underidentification test
Ho: matrix of reduced form coefficients has rank=K1-1 (underidentified)
Ha: matrix has rank=K1 (identified)
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic          Chi-sq(1)=4.45     P-val=0.0349

Weak identification test
Ho: equation is weakly identified
Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic                                       7.47
Kleibergen-Paap Wald rk F statistic                                 4.34

Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values for K1=1 and L1=1:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.

Weak-instrument-robust inference
Tests of joint significance of endogenous regressors B1 in main equation
Ho: B1=0 and orthogonality conditions are valid
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           F(1,1224)=     37.94     P-val=0.0000
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           Chi-sq(1)=     39.15     P-val=0.0000
Stock-Wright LM S statistic        Chi-sq(1)=     61.03     P-val=0.0000

NB: Underidentification, weak identification and weak-identification-robust
    test statistics heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust

Number of observations               N  =       1263
Number of regressors                 K  =         39
Number of endogenous regressors      K1 =          1
Number of instruments                L  =         39
Number of excluded instruments       L1 =          1

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode

                                                      Number of obs =     1263
                                                      F( 38,  1224) =     6.62
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  195.1046405                Centered R2   =  -0.7874
Total (uncentered) SS   =  514.0124959                Uncentered R2 =   0.3215
Residual SS             =   348.736681                Root MSE      =    .5338

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 logoilrevpc |  -.3581334   .1674555    -2.14   0.033     -.686665   -.0296019
    loggdppc |   .3562448   .1554754     2.29   0.022      .051217    .6612726
   gdpgrowth |  -.0117689    .005184    -2.27   0.023    -.0219394   -.0015984
    polity68 |  -.0051677   .3728168    -0.01   0.989    -.7365984     .726263
         yr1 |  -.7518575   .3206734    -2.34   0.019    -1.380988   -.1227271
         yr2 |  -.6818578    .292821    -2.33   0.020    -1.256344   -.1073711
         yr3 |  -.6674336   .2797132    -2.39   0.017    -1.216204   -.1186631
         yr4 |   -.613354   .2520682    -2.43   0.015    -1.107888   -.1188205
         yr5 |  -.5813552   .2336448    -2.49   0.013    -1.039744   -.1229666
         yr6 |  -.4621795   .1950767    -2.37   0.018    -.8449012   -.0794578
         yr7 |  -.0329751   .1530712    -0.22   0.829    -.3332862    .2673359
         yr8 |  -.0480219    .138111    -0.35   0.728    -.3189824    .2229386
         yr9 |   .0138545   .1567576     0.09   0.930    -.2936889    .3213979
        yr10 |  -.0533696    .139617    -0.38   0.702    -.3272848    .2205455
        yr11 |  -.0286408   .1335845    -0.21   0.830    -.2907208    .2334392
        yr12 |   .3157888   .2384282     1.32   0.186    -.1519845    .7835621
        yr13 |   .2838718   .2246332     1.26   0.207    -.1568371    .7245806
        yr14 |   .1617379    .174268     0.93   0.354     -.180159    .5036349
        yr15 |   .1225063   .1567879     0.78   0.435    -.1850965    .4301091
        yr16 |   .1253035    .145582     0.86   0.390    -.1603144    .4109214
        yr17 |   .1060291   .1418038     0.75   0.455    -.1721763    .3842345
        yr18 |   .0921672   .1302307     0.71   0.479    -.1633329    .3476673
        yr19 |  -.1437407   .0970908    -1.48   0.139    -.3342235     .046742
        yr20 |   -.099919   .0989353    -1.01   0.313    -.2940205    .0941825
        yr21 |  -.1657948    .104136    -1.59   0.112    -.3700996      .03851
        yr22 |  -.0881491   .0971683    -0.91   0.364    -.2787841    .1024858
        yr23 |   .0363254   .1021102     0.36   0.722    -.1640051    .2366559
        yr24 |   -.017046   .0982376    -0.17   0.862    -.2097786    .1756867
        yr25 |  -.0469727   .0953309    -0.49   0.622    -.2340028    .1400574
        yr26 |   -.154228   .1132884    -1.36   0.174    -.3764889     .068033
        yr27 |  -.1572954    .117835    -1.33   0.182    -.3884763    .0738856
        yr28 |  -.1286282   .1125721    -1.14   0.253    -.3494839    .0922275
        yr29 |  -.0476374   .0990011    -0.48   0.630    -.2418681    .1465932
        yr30 |  -.0738174   .0984262    -0.75   0.453    -.2669202    .1192853
        yr31 |   -.219346   .1299451    -1.69   0.092    -.4742858    .0355937
        yr32 |  -.0836231   .0961259    -0.87   0.385     -.272213    .1049667
        yr33 |   .1072114   .1092103     0.98   0.326    -.1070486    .3214715
        yr34 |   .0107838   .0662366     0.16   0.871    -.1191661    .1407336
        yr35 |          0  (omitted)
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
       _cons |  -.2099718   .1834529    -1.14   0.253    -.5698889    .1499452
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):              4.452
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0349
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):                7.472
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):          4.344
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hansen J statistic (overidentification test of all instruments):         0.000
                                                 (equation exactly identified)
-endog- option:
Endogeneity test of endogenous regressors:                              33.617
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
Regressors tested:    logoilrevpc
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         logoilrevpc
Included instruments: loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 yr1 yr2 yr3 yr4 yr5 yr6 yr7
                      yr8 yr9 yr10 yr11 yr12 yr13 yr14 yr15 yr16 yr17 yr18 yr19
                      yr20 yr21 yr22 yr23 yr24 yr25 yr26 yr27 yr28 yr29 yr30
                      yr31 yr32 yr33 yr34
Excluded instruments: logORDdef2k
Dropped collinear:    yr35 yr36 yr37 yr38
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(est1 stored)

. eststo:  spivreg normpolity2 loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 yr* (logoilrevpc=logORDdef2k), dlmat(distmat) id(id)
warning: spatial-weighting matrix in distmat contains 324 islands
note: 45 instruments omitted from the H matrix because of collinearity
      see e(H_omitted) for names of the omitted instruments

Spatial autoregressive model                      Number of obs   =     1263
(GS2SLS estimates)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
normpolity2  |
 logoilrevpc |  -.0866574    .011255    -7.70   0.000    -.1087169   -.0645979
    loggdppc |   .1064232   .0112782     9.44   0.000     .0843184    .1285281
   gdpgrowth |  -.0049588   .0010178    -4.87   0.000    -.0069536    -.002964
    polity68 |   .5668937   .0283947    19.96   0.000     .5112411    .6225464
         yr1 |          0   .0632017     0.00   1.000     -.123873     .123873
         yr2 |   .0082564   .0619271     0.13   0.894    -.1131185    .1296313
         yr3 |   .0012288   .0614885     0.02   0.984    -.1192864    .1217441
         yr4 |   .0167612   .0597723     0.28   0.779    -.1003903    .1339127
         yr5 |   .0255493   .0584941     0.44   0.662     -.089097    .1401956
         yr6 |   .0683064   .0571116     1.20   0.232    -.0436303    .1802431
         yr7 |   .1748753   .0526587     3.32   0.001     .0716661    .2780845
         yr8 |    .163792   .0522841     3.13   0.002     .0613172    .2662669
         yr9 |   .1677562   .0519349     3.23   0.001     .0659656    .2695468
        yr10 |   .1450473   .0518128     2.80   0.005     .0434961    .2465985
        yr11 |   .1622756   .0517747     3.13   0.002     .0607991    .2637522
        yr12 |   .2875701          .        .       .            .           .
        yr13 |   .2779314   .0509456     5.46   0.000     .1780799    .3777829
        yr14 |   .2453639    .050158     4.89   0.000     .1470561    .3436718
        yr15 |   .2341564     .05032     4.65   0.000     .1355309    .3327819
        yr16 |   .2524765   .0503322     5.02   0.000     .1538271    .3511258
        yr17 |   .2368107   .0502923     4.71   0.000     .1382396    .3353818
        yr18 |   .2371865   .0504386     4.70   0.000     .1383286    .3360444
        yr19 |   .1768627    .052007     3.40   0.001     .0749308    .2787946
        yr20 |   .1920693   .0513586     3.74   0.000     .0914082    .2927304
        yr21 |   .1868002   .0523189     3.57   0.000      .084257    .2893435
        yr22 |   .2187826   .0517836     4.22   0.000     .1172886    .3202765
        yr23 |   .2655707   .0510359     5.20   0.000     .1655422    .3655991
        yr24 |   .2593565    .051187     5.07   0.000     .1590318    .3596811
        yr25 |   .2525166   .0503876     5.01   0.000     .1537587    .3512745
        yr26 |   .2105148   .0510151     4.13   0.000     .1105271    .3105025
        yr27 |   .2161428   .0510335     4.24   0.000     .1161189    .3161666
        yr28 |    .224502   .0507035     4.43   0.000     .1251249     .323879
        yr29 |   .2452997   .0497225     4.93   0.000     .1478455    .3427539
        yr30 |   .2402043    .049947     4.81   0.000       .14231    .3380986
        yr31 |   .2029477   .0512109     3.96   0.000     .1025761    .3033192
        yr32 |   .2436619   .0496971     4.90   0.000     .1462574    .3410663
        yr33 |    .298907   .0487488     6.13   0.000      .203361     .394453
        yr34 |   .2816783   .0492485     5.72   0.000      .185153    .3782036
        yr35 |    .281724    .049599     5.68   0.000     .1845118    .3789362
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
       _cons |  -.3268168   .0511603    -6.39   0.000    -.4270892   -.2265445
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lambda       |
       _cons |   .1191406   .0201485     5.91   0.000     .0796503    .1586309
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:  logoilrevpc
Instruments:   logORDdef2k
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: ivreg2 normpolity2 (logoilrevpc=logORDdef2k) loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 lat_abs yr*, robust first bw(2) small
Warning: time variable year has 4 gap(s) in relevant range
Warning - collinearities detected
Vars dropped:       yr35 yr36 yr37 yr38

First-stage regressions
-----------------------


First-stage regression of logoilrevpc:

Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
Number of obs =                   1263
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
 logoilrevpc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 logORDdef2k |   .1655976   .0531365     3.12   0.002     .0613488    .2698465
    loggdppc |   1.082256   .0364562    29.69   0.000     1.010732    1.153779
   gdpgrowth |  -.0238506   .0081919    -2.91   0.004    -.0399224   -.0077787
    polity68 |  -1.973838   .1561556   -12.64   0.000    -2.280201   -1.667476
     lat_abs |  -.0263265     .00342    -7.70   0.000    -.0330363   -.0196168
         yr1 |  -1.673473   .4590434    -3.65   0.000    -2.574072   -.7728729
         yr2 |   -1.39012   .4665655    -2.98   0.003    -2.305478   -.4747628
         yr3 |  -1.432194   .4414815    -3.24   0.001    -2.298339   -.5660493
         yr4 |  -1.253832   .4209188    -2.98   0.003    -2.079635   -.4280295
         yr5 |  -1.005385   .4296802    -2.34   0.019    -1.848377   -.1623934
         yr6 |  -.8541801   .3946276    -2.16   0.031    -1.628402    -.079958
         yr7 |   .0901862   .4110554     0.22   0.826    -.7162657    .8966381
         yr8 |   .2776697    .378563     0.73   0.463    -.4650352    1.020375
         yr9 |   .0415365   .3920867     0.11   0.916    -.7277006    .8107737
        yr10 |   .1073588   .3690859     0.29   0.771    -.6167528    .8314705
        yr11 |    .303261   .3425528     0.89   0.376    -.3687954    .9753173
        yr12 |   1.189784   .3325549     3.58   0.000     .5373428    1.842226
        yr13 |   .5011853   .3771708     1.33   0.184    -.2387883    1.241159
        yr14 |    .634939   .3389224     1.87   0.061    -.0299948    1.299873
        yr15 |   .4000547   .3242968     1.23   0.218    -.2361849    1.036294
        yr16 |   .3806864   .3124988     1.22   0.223    -.2324067    .9937796
        yr17 |   .5741837   .2968213     1.93   0.053    -.0081516    1.156519
        yr18 |   .3190413   .3001238     1.06   0.288    -.2697733     .907856
        yr19 |  -.2665096   .2964735    -0.90   0.369    -.8481627    .3151435
        yr20 |  -.2786948   .3160856    -0.88   0.378    -.8988249    .3414353
        yr21 |  -.6192087   .3272288    -1.89   0.059    -1.261201    .0227833
        yr22 |  -.5132879   .3311762    -1.55   0.121    -1.163024    .1364486
        yr23 |  -.2471412   .3354407    -0.74   0.461    -.9052441    .4109617
        yr24 |  -.0776893   .3020094    -0.26   0.797    -.6702031    .5148245
        yr25 |  -.4377467   .3196938    -1.37   0.171    -1.064956    .1894624
        yr26 |  -.4387628   .2997951    -1.46   0.144    -1.026932    .1494069
        yr27 |  -.6413342   .3163934    -2.03   0.043    -1.262068   -.0206002
        yr28 |  -.5431602   .3182631    -1.71   0.088    -1.167562    .0812418
        yr29 |  -.2357432   .3053194    -0.77   0.440     -.834751    .3632645
        yr30 |  -.5162962   .3262872    -1.58   0.114    -1.156441    .1238485
        yr31 |  -.5993024   .3049284    -1.97   0.050    -1.197543   -.0010616
        yr32 |   -.477496   .3152002    -1.51   0.130    -1.095889    .1408971
        yr33 |   .3425454    .291864     1.17   0.241    -.2300643     .915155
        yr34 |  -.2357594   .2323108    -1.01   0.310    -.6915312    .2200124
        yr35 |          0  (omitted)
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
       _cons |   -4.96746   1.231963    -4.03   0.000    -7.384455   -2.550466
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
F test of excluded instruments:
  F(  1,  1223) =     9.71
  Prob > F      =   0.0019
Sanderson-Windmeijer multivariate F test of excluded instruments:
  F(  1,  1223) =     9.71
  Prob > F      =   0.0019



Summary results for first-stage regressions
-------------------------------------------

                                           (Underid)            (Weak id)
Variable     | F(  1,  1223)  P-val | SW Chi-sq(  1) P-val | SW F(  1,  1223)
logoilrevpc  |       9.71    0.0019 |       10.03   0.0015 |        9.71

NB: first-stage test statistics heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust

Stock-Yogo weak ID F test critical values for single endogenous regressor:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for i.i.d. errors only.

Underidentification test
Ho: matrix of reduced form coefficients has rank=K1-1 (underidentified)
Ha: matrix has rank=K1 (identified)
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic          Chi-sq(1)=9.71     P-val=0.0018

Weak identification test
Ho: equation is weakly identified
Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic                                      15.86
Kleibergen-Paap Wald rk F statistic                                 9.71

Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values for K1=1 and L1=1:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.

Weak-instrument-robust inference
Tests of joint significance of endogenous regressors B1 in main equation
Ho: B1=0 and orthogonality conditions are valid
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           F(1,1223)=     39.61     P-val=0.0000
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           Chi-sq(1)=     40.91     P-val=0.0000
Stock-Wright LM S statistic        Chi-sq(1)=     65.11     P-val=0.0000

NB: Underidentification, weak identification and weak-identification-robust
    test statistics heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust

Number of observations               N  =       1263
Number of regressors                 K  =         40
Number of endogenous regressors      K1 =          1
Number of instruments                L  =         40
Number of excluded instruments       L1 =          1

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode

                                                      Number of obs =     1263
                                                      F( 39,  1223) =    13.03
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  195.1046405                Centered R2   =   0.0747
Total (uncentered) SS   =  514.0124959                Uncentered R2 =   0.6488
Residual SS             =  180.5239444                Root MSE      =    .3842

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 logoilrevpc |  -.2608987   .0837155    -3.12   0.002    -.4251407   -.0966567
    loggdppc |   .2995716   .0913814     3.28   0.001     .1202899    .4788532
   gdpgrowth |   -.008514   .0026803    -3.18   0.002    -.0137724   -.0032555
    polity68 |   .2261503   .1843638     1.23   0.220    -.1355541    .5878547
     lat_abs |  -.0062226   .0024745    -2.51   0.012    -.0110774   -.0013678
         yr1 |  -.6004184   .1828589    -3.28   0.001    -.9591703   -.2416665
         yr2 |   -.552757   .1698104    -3.26   0.001    -.8859089    -.219605
         yr3 |  -.5468572   .1626646    -3.36   0.001    -.8659897   -.2277246
         yr4 |  -.5005289   .1429104    -3.50   0.000    -.7809057   -.2201522
         yr5 |  -.4800765   .1336461    -3.59   0.000    -.7422776   -.2178755
         yr6 |  -.3873736   .1191135    -3.25   0.001     -.621063   -.1536841
         yr7 |  -.0780149   .1014372    -0.77   0.442    -.2770251    .1209952
         yr8 |  -.0890088    .094164    -0.95   0.345    -.2737497    .0957321
         yr9 |  -.0525934    .099465    -0.53   0.597    -.2477344    .1425476
        yr10 |  -.1020725   .0953657    -1.07   0.285     -.289171    .0850261
        yr11 |  -.0791993   .0895481    -0.88   0.377    -.2548843    .0964857
        yr12 |   .1848255   .1326261     1.39   0.164    -.0753744    .4450254
        yr13 |    .162027   .1263669     1.28   0.200     -.085893     .409947
        yr14 |   .0772053   .1052034     0.73   0.463     -.129194    .2836045
        yr15 |   .0490745   .0970191     0.51   0.613    -.1412678    .2394168
        yr16 |   .0566805   .0911304     0.62   0.534    -.1221088    .2354698
        yr17 |   .0366157   .0863411     0.42   0.672    -.1327774    .2060088
        yr18 |   .0303705   .0804589     0.38   0.706    -.1274823    .1882233
        yr19 |  -.1419656   .0712281    -1.99   0.046    -.2817085   -.0022228
        yr20 |  -.1078623   .0727275    -1.48   0.138    -.2505467    .0348221
        yr21 |  -.1538926   .0738868    -2.08   0.037    -.2988515   -.0089336
        yr22 |  -.0923797   .0704725    -1.31   0.190    -.2306402    .0458808
        yr23 |   .0133408    .073251     0.18   0.856    -.1303707    .1570523
        yr24 |  -.0223591    .072851    -0.31   0.759    -.1652858    .1205676
        yr25 |  -.0291681     .07147    -0.41   0.683    -.1693854    .1110493
        yr26 |  -.1123206   .0805311    -1.39   0.163     -.270315    .0456737
        yr27 |  -.1133931   .0833098    -1.36   0.174    -.2768392    .0500529
        yr28 |  -.0938839   .0824233    -1.14   0.255    -.2555907     .067823
        yr29 |  -.0369738   .0768338    -0.48   0.630    -.1877145    .1137669
        yr30 |   -.057404   .0761653    -0.75   0.451    -.2068332    .0920252
        yr31 |  -.1611978   .0867337    -1.86   0.063    -.3313611    .0089655
        yr32 |  -.0604051   .0735689    -0.82   0.412    -.2047403    .0839301
        yr33 |   .0795733    .079018     1.01   0.314    -.0754526    .2345992
        yr34 |    .009977   .0520182     0.19   0.848    -.0920779    .1120319
        yr35 |          0  (omitted)
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
       _cons |  -.2453259   .1487604    -1.65   0.099    -.5371799     .046528
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):              9.705
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0018
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               15.859
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):          9.712
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hansen J statistic (overidentification test of all instruments):         0.000
                                                 (equation exactly identified)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         logoilrevpc
Included instruments: loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 lat_abs yr1 yr2 yr3 yr4 yr5
                      yr6 yr7 yr8 yr9 yr10 yr11 yr12 yr13 yr14 yr15 yr16 yr17
                      yr18 yr19 yr20 yr21 yr22 yr23 yr24 yr25 yr26 yr27 yr28
                      yr29 yr30 yr31 yr32 yr33 yr34
Excluded instruments: logORDdef2k
Dropped collinear:    yr35 yr36 yr37 yr38
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(est3 stored)

. eststo: spivreg normpolity2 loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 lat_abs yr* (logoilrevpc=logORDdef2k), dlmat(distmat) id(id)
warning: spatial-weighting matrix in distmat contains 324 islands
note: 45 instruments omitted from the H matrix because of collinearity
      see e(H_omitted) for names of the omitted instruments

Spatial autoregressive model                      Number of obs   =     1263
(GS2SLS estimates)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
normpolity2  |
 logoilrevpc |  -.0997383   .0097001   -10.28   0.000    -.1187502   -.0807264
    loggdppc |   .1285537   .0114419    11.24   0.000     .1061279    .1509795
   gdpgrowth |  -.0050321    .001028    -4.89   0.000    -.0070471   -.0030172
    polity68 |   .5476102   .0251318    21.79   0.000     .4983527    .5968677
     lat_abs |  -.0019208   .0004572    -4.20   0.000    -.0028169   -.0010247
         yr1 |   -.324235          .        .       .            .           .
         yr2 |  -.3130979   .0590407    -5.30   0.000    -.4288156   -.1973803
         yr3 |  -.3193535   .0590696    -5.41   0.000    -.4351278   -.2035792
         yr4 |  -.3001086   .0581392    -5.16   0.000    -.4140594   -.1861579
         yr5 |  -.2912264   .0572603    -5.09   0.000    -.4034545   -.1789983
         yr6 |  -.2444952    .057583    -4.25   0.000    -.3573558   -.1316347
         yr7 |  -.1236811   .0598224    -2.07   0.039    -.2409308   -.0064315
         yr8 |  -.1341514   .0594547    -2.26   0.024    -.2506805   -.0176222
         yr9 |   -.128867   .0601029    -2.14   0.032    -.2466665   -.0110675
        yr10 |  -.1531487   .0592454    -2.58   0.010    -.2692676   -.0370297
        yr11 |  -.1352857   .0593775    -2.28   0.023    -.2516635   -.0189079
        yr12 |          0   .0623579     0.00   1.000    -.1222192    .1222192
        yr13 |  -.0103474   .0620735    -0.17   0.868    -.1320093    .1113145
        yr14 |  -.0456029     .05997    -0.76   0.447    -.1631419    .0719361
        yr15 |  -.0578237   .0596395    -0.97   0.332     -.174715    .0590677
        yr16 |  -.0404824   .0593443    -0.68   0.495    -.1567951    .0758302
        yr17 |  -.0569789   .0591877    -0.96   0.336    -.1729847     .059027
        yr18 |  -.0564681   .0591371    -0.95   0.340    -.1723748    .0594385
        yr19 |    -.12504   .0571561    -2.19   0.029    -.2370639   -.0130161
        yr20 |  -.1083092    .057111    -1.90   0.058    -.2202447    .0036263
        yr21 |  -.1170687   .0567331    -2.06   0.039    -.2282636   -.0058738
        yr22 |   -.082803   .0571865    -1.45   0.148    -.1948865    .0292806
        yr23 |  -.0293922   .0582083    -0.50   0.614    -.1434784     .084694
        yr24 |  -.0376117   .0574141    -0.66   0.512    -.1501413    .0749178
        yr25 |  -.0409921   .0563829    -0.73   0.467    -.1515006    .0695163
        yr26 |  -.0859117    .055546    -1.55   0.122    -.1947799    .0229565
        yr27 |  -.0810494   .0553339    -1.46   0.143    -.1895019    .0274032
        yr28 |  -.0723041   .0554284    -1.30   0.192    -.1809417    .0363335
        yr29 |  -.0493951   .0557891    -0.89   0.376    -.1587398    .0599496
        yr30 |   -.056083   .0555064    -1.01   0.312    -.1648735    .0527076
        yr31 |  -.0976367   .0543348    -1.80   0.072     -.204131    .0088575
        yr32 |  -.0526244   .0550323    -0.96   0.339    -.1604856    .0552369
        yr33 |   .0084394   .0569712     0.15   0.882    -.1032221    .1201008
        yr34 |   -.013056   .0557897    -0.23   0.815    -.1224017    .0962898
        yr35 |  -.0144687   .0558587    -0.26   0.796    -.1239498    .0950123
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
       _cons |  -.0669595     .06078    -1.10   0.271    -.1860862    .0521672
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lambda       |
       _cons |   .0988715   .0214412     4.61   0.000     .0568474    .1408956
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:  logoilrevpc
Instruments:   logORDdef2k
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: ivreg2 normpolity2 (logoilrevpc=logORDdef2k) loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 top5 yr*, robust first bw(2) small
Warning: time variable year has 4 gap(s) in relevant range
Warning - collinearities detected
Vars dropped:       yr35 yr36 yr37 yr38

First-stage regressions
-----------------------


First-stage regression of logoilrevpc:

Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
Number of obs =                   1263
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
 logoilrevpc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 logORDdef2k |   .1173264   .0558501     2.10   0.036     .0077537     .226899
    loggdppc |   .9121574    .043013    21.21   0.000       .82777    .9965447
   gdpgrowth |  -.0268439   .0084002    -3.20   0.001    -.0433242   -.0103636
    polity68 |  -2.046037   .1724192   -11.87   0.000    -2.384307   -1.707767
        top5 |   .4855309   .1376864     3.53   0.000     .2154032    .7556587
         yr1 |  -1.636987   .4759816    -3.44   0.001    -2.570818   -.7031563
         yr2 |  -1.384218   .4789599    -2.89   0.004    -2.323892   -.4445438
         yr3 |  -1.387675   .4560077    -3.04   0.002    -2.282319   -.4930311
         yr4 |  -1.233188   .4401974    -2.80   0.005    -2.096814    -.369562
         yr5 |  -1.018615   .4478788    -2.27   0.023    -1.897311    -.139919
         yr6 |  -.8318408   .4209086    -1.98   0.048    -1.657624   -.0060579
         yr7 |   .2013844   .4354585     0.46   0.644    -.6529441    1.055713
         yr8 |   .3082421   .3937875     0.78   0.434    -.4643317    1.080816
         yr9 |   .2192049   .4082319     0.54   0.591    -.5817076    1.020117
        yr10 |   .2124155   .3755525     0.57   0.572    -.5243831    .9492142
        yr11 |   .3567404   .3485849     1.02   0.306    -.3271503    1.040631
        yr12 |   1.227034   .3445456     3.56   0.000     .5510681       1.903
        yr13 |   .7118166   .3905795     1.82   0.069    -.0544635    1.478097
        yr14 |   .6963669   .3464514     2.01   0.045     .0166621    1.376072
        yr15 |   .4963052    .330499     1.50   0.133    -.1521028    1.144713
        yr16 |   .4683798   .3183988     1.47   0.142    -.1562887    1.093048
        yr17 |   .6085278   .3048153     2.00   0.046     .0105089    1.206547
        yr18 |   .4046345    .308168     1.31   0.189     -.199962    1.009231
        yr19 |   -.201069   .3040285    -0.66   0.509    -.7975442    .3954063
        yr20 |  -.1808581   .3226675    -0.56   0.575    -.8139012    .4521851
        yr21 |  -.4823765   .3349982    -1.44   0.150    -1.139611    .1748583
        yr22 |  -.3587755   .3431981    -1.05   0.296    -1.032098    .3145469
        yr23 |  -.1149242   .3432908    -0.33   0.738    -.7884283    .5585799
        yr24 |  -.0475548   .3069708    -0.15   0.877    -.6498024    .5546928
        yr25 |  -.3699184   .3267284    -1.13   0.258    -1.010929    .2710918
        yr26 |   -.444315   .3014127    -1.47   0.141    -1.035658    .1470283
        yr27 |   -.593518   .3204533    -1.85   0.064    -1.222217    .0351811
        yr28 |  -.4958524     .32115    -1.54   0.123    -1.125918    .1342136
        yr29 |  -.2028483    .304515    -0.67   0.505    -.8002781    .3945814
        yr30 |  -.4181557   .3281915    -1.27   0.203    -1.062036     .225725
        yr31 |  -.6017964   .3009779    -2.00   0.046    -1.192287   -.0113061
        yr32 |  -.4090346   .3131802    -1.31   0.192    -1.023465    .2053953
        yr33 |   .3242238   .2917177     1.11   0.267    -.2480989    .8965464
        yr34 |  -.1647067     .23169    -0.71   0.477    -.6192607    .2898472
        yr35 |          0  (omitted)
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
       _cons |  -3.268856   1.329197    -2.46   0.014    -5.876615   -.6610971
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
F test of excluded instruments:
  F(  1,  1223) =     4.41
  Prob > F      =   0.0359
Sanderson-Windmeijer multivariate F test of excluded instruments:
  F(  1,  1223) =     4.41
  Prob > F      =   0.0359



Summary results for first-stage regressions
-------------------------------------------

                                           (Underid)            (Weak id)
Variable     | F(  1,  1223)  P-val | SW Chi-sq(  1) P-val | SW F(  1,  1223)
logoilrevpc  |       4.41    0.0359 |        4.56   0.0328 |        4.41

NB: first-stage test statistics heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust

Stock-Yogo weak ID F test critical values for single endogenous regressor:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for i.i.d. errors only.

Underidentification test
Ho: matrix of reduced form coefficients has rank=K1-1 (underidentified)
Ha: matrix has rank=K1 (identified)
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic          Chi-sq(1)=4.53     P-val=0.0333

Weak identification test
Ho: equation is weakly identified
Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic                                       7.51
Kleibergen-Paap Wald rk F statistic                                 4.41

Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values for K1=1 and L1=1:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.

Weak-instrument-robust inference
Tests of joint significance of endogenous regressors B1 in main equation
Ho: B1=0 and orthogonality conditions are valid
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           F(1,1223)=     38.12     P-val=0.0000
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           Chi-sq(1)=     39.37     P-val=0.0000
Stock-Wright LM S statistic        Chi-sq(1)=     62.64     P-val=0.0000

NB: Underidentification, weak identification and weak-identification-robust
    test statistics heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust

Number of observations               N  =       1263
Number of regressors                 K  =         40
Number of endogenous regressors      K1 =          1
Number of instruments                L  =         40
Number of excluded instruments       L1 =          1

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode

                                                      Number of obs =     1263
                                                      F( 39,  1223) =     6.39
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  195.1046405                Centered R2   =  -0.7806
Total (uncentered) SS   =  514.0124959                Uncentered R2 =   0.3241
Residual SS             =  347.3961071                Root MSE      =     .533

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 logoilrevpc |  -.3581422    .166617    -2.15   0.032     -.685029   -.0312555
    loggdppc |   .3498216   .1506842     2.32   0.020     .0541934    .6454498
   gdpgrowth |  -.0118184   .0051843    -2.28   0.023    -.0219894   -.0016474
    polity68 |    .006842   .3628415     0.02   0.985    -.7050189    .7187028
        top5 |   .1272755   .0948166     1.34   0.180    -.0587457    .3132966
         yr1 |  -.7511719   .3192803    -2.35   0.019     -1.37757   -.1247742
         yr2 |  -.6850901   .2934581    -2.33   0.020    -1.260827   -.1093531
         yr3 |  -.6704562    .280218    -2.39   0.017    -1.220217    -.120695
         yr4 |  -.6150967    .251861    -2.44   0.015    -1.109224   -.1209691
         yr5 |  -.5820659   .2330166    -2.50   0.013    -1.039222   -.1249093
         yr6 |  -.4628136   .1944821    -2.38   0.017    -.8443692   -.0812581
         yr7 |  -.0323253   .1526817    -0.21   0.832    -.3318724    .2672219
         yr8 |  -.0509963   .1371153    -0.37   0.710    -.3200037     .218011
         yr9 |   .0113896   .1551955     0.07   0.942    -.2930894    .3158685
        yr10 |  -.0558957   .1384623    -0.40   0.687    -.3275456    .2157541
        yr11 |   -.031176   .1325117    -0.24   0.814    -.2911514    .2287994
        yr12 |   .3135613   .2362679     1.33   0.185    -.1499739    .7770966
        yr13 |   .2816417   .2225789     1.27   0.206    -.1550372    .7183205
        yr14 |    .159935   .1727945     0.93   0.355    -.1790716    .4989415
        yr15 |   .1206062   .1553697     0.78   0.438    -.1842144    .4254268
        yr16 |   .1234589   .1444342     0.85   0.393    -.1599075    .4068252
        yr17 |   .1043641   .1409318     0.74   0.459    -.1721307     .380859
        yr18 |   .0904255   .1294976     0.70   0.485    -.1636365    .3444875
        yr19 |  -.1455561   .0975747    -1.49   0.136    -.3369885    .0458763
        yr20 |  -.1018096   .0992509    -1.03   0.305    -.2965305    .0929114
        yr21 |  -.1678888   .1047498    -1.60   0.109    -.3733979    .0376203
        yr22 |  -.0901914   .0976156    -0.92   0.356    -.2817039    .1013212
        yr23 |   .0340393   .1017561     0.33   0.738    -.1655966    .2336752
        yr24 |  -.0192579   .0984191    -0.20   0.845    -.2123469    .1738311
        yr25 |  -.0486514   .0956731    -0.51   0.611    -.2363529    .1390502
        yr26 |   -.156281    .114067    -1.37   0.171    -.3800697    .0675077
        yr27 |    -.15927   .1186483    -1.34   0.180    -.3920468    .0735067
        yr28 |  -.1304303   .1133105    -1.15   0.250    -.3527348    .0918742
        yr29 |   -.048649   .0995018    -0.49   0.625    -.2438622    .1465642
        yr30 |  -.0746454   .0986597    -0.76   0.449    -.2682065    .1189156
        yr31 |  -.2201031   .1300454    -1.69   0.091    -.4752399    .0350337
        yr32 |  -.0839196   .0962762    -0.87   0.384    -.2728043    .1049652
        yr33 |   .1068663   .1091702     0.98   0.328    -.1073153    .3210479
        yr34 |   .0107605   .0663854     0.16   0.871    -.1194814    .1410024
        yr35 |          0  (omitted)
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
       _cons |  -.1720595   .1701644    -1.01   0.312     -.505906     .161787
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):              4.529
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0333
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):                7.515
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):          4.413
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hansen J statistic (overidentification test of all instruments):         0.000
                                                 (equation exactly identified)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         logoilrevpc
Included instruments: loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 top5 yr1 yr2 yr3 yr4 yr5 yr6
                      yr7 yr8 yr9 yr10 yr11 yr12 yr13 yr14 yr15 yr16 yr17 yr18
                      yr19 yr20 yr21 yr22 yr23 yr24 yr25 yr26 yr27 yr28 yr29
                      yr30 yr31 yr32 yr33 yr34
Excluded instruments: logORDdef2k
Dropped collinear:    yr35 yr36 yr37 yr38
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(est5 stored)

. eststo: spivreg normpolity2 loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 top5 yr* (logoilrevpc=logORDdef2k), dlmat(distmat) id(id)
warning: spatial-weighting matrix in distmat contains 324 islands
note: 45 instruments omitted from the H matrix because of collinearity
      see e(H_omitted) for names of the omitted instruments

Spatial autoregressive model                      Number of obs   =     1263
(GS2SLS estimates)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
normpolity2  |
 logoilrevpc |  -.0725078   .0091377    -7.94   0.000    -.0904173   -.0545982
    loggdppc |   .0943555   .0093176    10.13   0.000     .0760933    .1126176
   gdpgrowth |  -.0046107   .0009748    -4.73   0.000    -.0065213      -.0027
    polity68 |    .594653    .024239    24.53   0.000     .5471455    .6421605
        top5 |   -.015981   .0223715    -0.71   0.475    -.0598284    .0278664
         yr1 |  -.2472632   .0587352    -4.21   0.000    -.3623821   -.1321442
         yr2 |  -.2416215   .0578931    -4.17   0.000    -.3550898   -.1281532
         yr3 |  -.2497843   .0575757    -4.34   0.000    -.3626306   -.1369379
         yr4 |  -.2363608   .0560592    -4.22   0.000    -.3462349   -.1264867
         yr5 |  -.2287968    .054897    -4.17   0.000    -.3363929   -.1212006
         yr6 |   -.190096   .0539233    -3.53   0.000    -.2957836   -.0844084
         yr7 |  -.1006019   .0507236    -1.98   0.047    -.2000184   -.0011854
         yr8 |  -.1109849   .0503684    -2.20   0.028     -.209705   -.0122647
         yr9 |  -.1100426   .0501419    -2.19   0.028     -.208319   -.0117663
        yr10 |  -.1304949   .0499366    -2.61   0.009    -.2283689   -.0326209
        yr11 |  -.1137298   .0499157    -2.28   0.023    -.2115628   -.0158969
        yr12 |          0  (omitted)
        yr13 |  -.0085351   .0493388    -0.17   0.863    -.1052373    .0881672
        yr14 |  -.0365436   .0485156    -0.75   0.451    -.1316324    .0585452
        yr15 |  -.0463171    .048638    -0.95   0.341    -.1416459    .0490116
        yr16 |  -.0271992   .0486269    -0.56   0.576    -.1225063    .0681078
        yr17 |  -.0426388   .0485819    -0.88   0.380    -.1378575    .0525798
        yr18 |  -.0417039   .0487009    -0.86   0.392    -.1371559    .0537482
        yr19 |  -.0928744   .0497838    -1.87   0.062    -.1904488       .0047
        yr20 |  -.0790692   .0492423    -1.61   0.108    -.1755824     .017444
        yr21 |  -.0811743   .0499797    -1.62   0.104    -.1791327    .0167841
        yr22 |  -.0516416   .0496119    -1.04   0.298    -.1488792     .045596
        yr23 |  -.0092193    .049107    -0.19   0.851    -.1054672    .0870286
        yr24 |  -.0130978   .0491248    -0.27   0.790    -.1093807    .0831851
        yr25 |  -.0187511   .0482669    -0.39   0.698    -.1133525    .0758502
        yr26 |  -.0573086   .0486528    -1.18   0.239    -.1526664    .0380492
        yr27 |  -.0512327   .0486362    -1.05   0.292    -.1465579    .0440925
        yr28 |  -.0439061   .0483886    -0.91   0.364    -.1387461    .0509339
        yr29 |  -.0262973   .0476319    -0.55   0.581    -.1196541    .0670596
        yr30 |  -.0302282   .0477795    -0.63   0.527    -.1238744     .063418
        yr31 |  -.0618849   .0485928    -1.27   0.203    -.1571249    .0333552
        yr32 |  -.0261728   .0474832    -0.55   0.581    -.1192382    .0668926
        yr33 |   .0220437   .0469587     0.47   0.639    -.0699936     .114081
        yr34 |   .0087997   .0472316     0.19   0.852    -.0837726     .101372
        yr35 |    .009356   .0475405     0.20   0.844    -.0838217    .1025336
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
       _cons |  -.0539023   .0500029    -1.08   0.281    -.1519063    .0441016
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lambda       |
       _cons |   .1312869   .0192788     6.81   0.000     .0935011    .1690727
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:  logoilrevpc
Instruments:   logORDdef2k
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: ivreg2 normpolity2 (logoilrevpc=logORDdef2k) loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 yr* coldwar, robust first bw(2) small
>  endog(logoilrevpc)
Warning: time variable year has 4 gap(s) in relevant range
Warning - collinearities detected
Vars dropped:       yr35 yr36 yr37 yr38 coldwar

First-stage regressions
-----------------------


First-stage regression of logoilrevpc:

Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
Number of obs =                   1263
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
 logoilrevpc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 logORDdef2k |   .1173303   .0562936     2.08   0.037     .0068876     .227773
    loggdppc |    .936692   .0399398    23.45   0.000     .8583339     1.01505
   gdpgrowth |  -.0266559   .0083966    -3.17   0.002    -.0431292   -.0101825
    polity68 |  -2.091922    .173302   -12.07   0.000    -2.431923    -1.75192
         yr1 |  -1.639658    .475343    -3.45   0.001    -2.572235   -.7070803
         yr2 |  -1.371933   .4804616    -2.86   0.004    -2.314553   -.4293136
         yr3 |  -1.376191    .457503    -3.01   0.003    -2.273768   -.4786137
         yr4 |  -1.226581   .4423367    -2.77   0.006    -2.094403   -.3587587
         yr5 |  -1.015938   .4502786    -2.26   0.024    -1.899341   -.1325346
         yr6 |  -.8294495   .4233741    -1.96   0.050    -1.660069    .0011699
         yr7 |   .1989119   .4371367     0.46   0.649    -.6587084    1.056532
         yr8 |   .3195997   .3953788     0.81   0.419    -.4560956    1.095295
         yr9 |   .2286157   .4102237     0.56   0.577    -.5762038    1.033435
        yr10 |   .2220596   .3769753     0.59   0.556    -.5175298    .9616489
        yr11 |   .3664238   .3494943     1.05   0.295    -.3192505    1.052098
        yr12 |   1.235573   .3446589     3.58   0.000      .559385     1.91176
        yr13 |   .7203482   .3910095     1.84   0.066    -.0467748    1.487471
        yr14 |   .7032685   .3467863     2.03   0.043     .0229071     1.38363
        yr15 |   .5035704   .3312435     1.52   0.129    -.1462976    1.153438
        yr16 |   .4754325   .3186449     1.49   0.136    -.1497181    1.100583
        yr17 |   .6148999   .3041848     2.02   0.043     .0181186    1.211681
        yr18 |   .4112926   .3077976     1.34   0.182    -.1925768    1.015162
        yr19 |  -.1941502    .303646    -0.64   0.523    -.7898745    .4015741
        yr20 |  -.1736516   .3222886    -0.54   0.590    -.8059508    .4586477
        yr21 |  -.4744042    .335106    -1.42   0.157     -1.13185    .1830415
        yr22 |  -.3509965   .3434394    -1.02   0.307    -1.024792    .3227986
        yr23 |  -.1062068   .3443617    -0.31   0.758    -.7818113    .5693977
        yr24 |  -.0391182   .3074087    -0.13   0.899    -.6422245    .5639881
        yr25 |  -.3635268    .327339    -1.11   0.267    -1.005734    .2786809
        yr26 |  -.4364976   .3013674    -1.45   0.148    -1.027752    .1547562
        yr27 |  -.5860048   .3204671    -1.83   0.068    -1.214731    .0427209
        yr28 |   -.488994   .3211117    -1.52   0.128    -1.118984    .1409964
        yr29 |  -.1989961   .3041811    -0.65   0.513    -.7957702    .3977781
        yr30 |  -.4150109   .3282452    -1.26   0.206    -1.058997    .2289747
        yr31 |  -.5989283   .3004258    -1.99   0.046    -1.188335   -.0095218
        yr32 |  -.4079174   .3128619    -1.30   0.193    -1.021722    .2058875
        yr33 |   .3255513    .291023     1.12   0.264     -.245408    .8965106
        yr34 |  -.1646235   .2315719    -0.71   0.477    -.6189453    .2896983
        yr35 |          0  (omitted)
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
     coldwar |          0  (omitted)
       _cons |  -3.413599    1.33362    -2.56   0.011    -6.030033   -.7971649
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
F test of excluded instruments:
  F(  1,  1224) =     4.34
  Prob > F      =   0.0373
Sanderson-Windmeijer multivariate F test of excluded instruments:
  F(  1,  1224) =     4.34
  Prob > F      =   0.0373



Summary results for first-stage regressions
-------------------------------------------

                                           (Underid)            (Weak id)
Variable     | F(  1,  1224)  P-val | SW Chi-sq(  1) P-val | SW F(  1,  1224)
logoilrevpc  |       4.34    0.0373 |        4.48   0.0342 |        4.34

NB: first-stage test statistics heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust

Stock-Yogo weak ID F test critical values for single endogenous regressor:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for i.i.d. errors only.

Underidentification test
Ho: matrix of reduced form coefficients has rank=K1-1 (underidentified)
Ha: matrix has rank=K1 (identified)
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic          Chi-sq(1)=4.45     P-val=0.0349

Weak identification test
Ho: equation is weakly identified
Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic                                       7.47
Kleibergen-Paap Wald rk F statistic                                 4.34

Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values for K1=1 and L1=1:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.

Weak-instrument-robust inference
Tests of joint significance of endogenous regressors B1 in main equation
Ho: B1=0 and orthogonality conditions are valid
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           F(1,1224)=     37.94     P-val=0.0000
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           Chi-sq(1)=     39.15     P-val=0.0000
Stock-Wright LM S statistic        Chi-sq(1)=     61.03     P-val=0.0000

NB: Underidentification, weak identification and weak-identification-robust
    test statistics heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust

Number of observations               N  =       1263
Number of regressors                 K  =         39
Number of endogenous regressors      K1 =          1
Number of instruments                L  =         39
Number of excluded instruments       L1 =          1

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode

                                                      Number of obs =     1263
                                                      F( 38,  1224) =     6.62
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  195.1046405                Centered R2   =  -0.7874
Total (uncentered) SS   =  514.0124959                Uncentered R2 =   0.3215
Residual SS             =   348.736681                Root MSE      =    .5338

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 logoilrevpc |  -.3581334   .1674555    -2.14   0.033     -.686665   -.0296019
    loggdppc |   .3562448   .1554754     2.29   0.022      .051217    .6612726
   gdpgrowth |  -.0117689    .005184    -2.27   0.023    -.0219394   -.0015984
    polity68 |  -.0051677   .3728168    -0.01   0.989    -.7365984     .726263
         yr1 |  -.7518575   .3206734    -2.34   0.019    -1.380988   -.1227271
         yr2 |  -.6818578    .292821    -2.33   0.020    -1.256344   -.1073711
         yr3 |  -.6674336   .2797132    -2.39   0.017    -1.216204   -.1186631
         yr4 |   -.613354   .2520682    -2.43   0.015    -1.107888   -.1188205
         yr5 |  -.5813552   .2336448    -2.49   0.013    -1.039744   -.1229666
         yr6 |  -.4621795   .1950767    -2.37   0.018    -.8449012   -.0794578
         yr7 |  -.0329751   .1530712    -0.22   0.829    -.3332862    .2673359
         yr8 |  -.0480219    .138111    -0.35   0.728    -.3189824    .2229386
         yr9 |   .0138545   .1567576     0.09   0.930    -.2936889    .3213979
        yr10 |  -.0533696    .139617    -0.38   0.702    -.3272848    .2205455
        yr11 |  -.0286408   .1335845    -0.21   0.830    -.2907208    .2334392
        yr12 |   .3157888   .2384282     1.32   0.186    -.1519845    .7835621
        yr13 |   .2838718   .2246332     1.26   0.207    -.1568371    .7245806
        yr14 |   .1617379    .174268     0.93   0.354     -.180159    .5036349
        yr15 |   .1225063   .1567879     0.78   0.435    -.1850965    .4301091
        yr16 |   .1253035    .145582     0.86   0.390    -.1603144    .4109214
        yr17 |   .1060291   .1418038     0.75   0.455    -.1721763    .3842345
        yr18 |   .0921672   .1302307     0.71   0.479    -.1633329    .3476673
        yr19 |  -.1437407   .0970908    -1.48   0.139    -.3342235     .046742
        yr20 |   -.099919   .0989353    -1.01   0.313    -.2940205    .0941825
        yr21 |  -.1657948    .104136    -1.59   0.112    -.3700996      .03851
        yr22 |  -.0881491   .0971683    -0.91   0.364    -.2787841    .1024858
        yr23 |   .0363254   .1021102     0.36   0.722    -.1640051    .2366559
        yr24 |   -.017046   .0982376    -0.17   0.862    -.2097786    .1756867
        yr25 |  -.0469727   .0953309    -0.49   0.622    -.2340028    .1400574
        yr26 |   -.154228   .1132884    -1.36   0.174    -.3764889     .068033
        yr27 |  -.1572954    .117835    -1.33   0.182    -.3884763    .0738856
        yr28 |  -.1286282   .1125721    -1.14   0.253    -.3494839    .0922275
        yr29 |  -.0476374   .0990011    -0.48   0.630    -.2418681    .1465932
        yr30 |  -.0738174   .0984262    -0.75   0.453    -.2669202    .1192853
        yr31 |   -.219346   .1299451    -1.69   0.092    -.4742858    .0355937
        yr32 |  -.0836231   .0961259    -0.87   0.385     -.272213    .1049667
        yr33 |   .1072114   .1092103     0.98   0.326    -.1070486    .3214715
        yr34 |   .0107838   .0662366     0.16   0.871    -.1191661    .1407336
        yr35 |          0  (omitted)
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
     coldwar |          0  (omitted)
       _cons |  -.2099718   .1834529    -1.14   0.253    -.5698889    .1499452
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):              4.452
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0349
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):                7.472
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):          4.344
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hansen J statistic (overidentification test of all instruments):         0.000
                                                 (equation exactly identified)
-endog- option:
Endogeneity test of endogenous regressors:                              33.617
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
Regressors tested:    logoilrevpc
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         logoilrevpc
Included instruments: loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 yr1 yr2 yr3 yr4 yr5 yr6 yr7
                      yr8 yr9 yr10 yr11 yr12 yr13 yr14 yr15 yr16 yr17 yr18 yr19
                      yr20 yr21 yr22 yr23 yr24 yr25 yr26 yr27 yr28 yr29 yr30
                      yr31 yr32 yr33 yr34
Excluded instruments: logORDdef2k
Dropped collinear:    yr35 yr36 yr37 yr38 coldwar
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(est7 stored)

. eststo: spivreg normpolity2 loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 yr* coldwar (logoilrevpc=logORDdef2k), dlmat(distmat) id(id)
warning: spatial-weighting matrix in distmat contains 324 islands
note: 48 instruments omitted from the H matrix because of collinearity
      see e(H_omitted) for names of the omitted instruments

Spatial autoregressive model                      Number of obs   =     1263
(GS2SLS estimates)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
normpolity2  |
 logoilrevpc |  -.0866574    .011255    -7.70   0.000    -.1087169   -.0645979
    loggdppc |   .1064232   .0112782     9.44   0.000     .0843184    .1285281
   gdpgrowth |  -.0049588   .0010178    -4.87   0.000    -.0069536    -.002964
    polity68 |   .5668937   .0283947    19.96   0.000     .5112411    .6225464
         yr1 |          0  (omitted)
         yr2 |   .0082564   .0574267     0.14   0.886    -.1042978    .1208106
         yr3 |   .0012288   .0574706     0.02   0.983    -.1114114    .1138691
         yr4 |   .0167612   .0565845     0.30   0.767    -.0941424    .1276649
         yr5 |   .0255493   .0557705     0.46   0.647    -.0837589    .1348574
         yr6 |   .0683064   .0562032     1.22   0.224    -.0418499    .1784627
         yr7 |   .1748753   .0594821     2.94   0.003     .0582925    .2914582
         yr8 |    .163792   .0590809     2.77   0.006     .0479955    .2795885
         yr9 |   .1677562   .0600475     2.79   0.005     .0500653    .2854471
        yr10 |   .1450473   .0589838     2.46   0.014     .0294412    .2606534
        yr11 |   .1622756   .0591321     2.74   0.006     .0463789    .2781724
        yr12 |   .2875701   .0632017     4.55   0.000     .1636971    .4114432
        yr13 |   .2779314   .0627735     4.43   0.000     .1548975    .4009653
        yr14 |   .2453639   .0601804     4.08   0.000     .1274125    .3633154
        yr15 |   .2341564   .0596964     3.92   0.000     .1171536    .3511592
        yr16 |   .2524765   .0593462     4.25   0.000     .1361601    .3687928
        yr17 |   .2368107   .0592133     4.00   0.000     .1207548    .3528666
        yr18 |   .2371865   .0590452     4.02   0.000       .12146     .352913
        yr19 |   .1768627   .0563632     3.14   0.002     .0663928    .2873326
        yr20 |   .1920693   .0564278     3.40   0.001     .0814729    .3026657
        yr21 |   .1868002   .0558566     3.34   0.001     .0773233    .2962772
        yr22 |  -.1080342   .0498266    -2.17   0.030    -.2056926   -.0103759
        yr23 |  -.0612462   .0495815    -1.24   0.217     -.158424    .0359317
        yr24 |  -.0674603   .0494164    -1.37   0.172    -.1643148    .0293941
        yr25 |  -.0743002   .0479857    -1.55   0.122    -.1683504      .01975
        yr26 |   -.116302   .0479203    -2.43   0.015     -.210224     -.02238
        yr27 |  -.1106741   .0481063    -2.30   0.021    -.2049607   -.0163874
        yr28 |  -.1023149   .0480934    -2.13   0.033    -.1965762   -.0080535
        yr29 |  -.0815171   .0476887    -1.71   0.087    -.1749852    .0119509
        yr30 |  -.0866125   .0478977    -1.81   0.071    -.1804903    .0072652
        yr31 |  -.1238692   .0484026    -2.56   0.010    -.2187366   -.0290018
        yr32 |   -.083155   .0474263    -1.75   0.080    -.1761087    .0097988
        yr33 |  -.0279098   .0476348    -0.59   0.558    -.1212723    .0654527
        yr34 |  -.0451385   .0477088    -0.95   0.344    -.1386461    .0483691
        yr35 |  -.0450928   .0481355    -0.94   0.349    -.1394367    .0492511
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
     coldwar |  -.3268168   .0587653    -5.56   0.000    -.4419948   -.2116389
       _cons |          0  (omitted)
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lambda       |
       _cons |   .1191406   .0201485     5.91   0.000     .0796503    .1586309
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:  logoilrevpc
Instruments:   logORDdef2k
(est8 stored)

. 
. eststo: ivreg2 normpolity2 (logoilrevpc=logORDdef2k) loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 top5 lat_abs yr*, robust first bw(2) 
> small
Warning: time variable year has 4 gap(s) in relevant range
Warning - collinearities detected
Vars dropped:       yr35 yr36 yr37 yr38

First-stage regressions
-----------------------


First-stage regression of logoilrevpc:

Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
Number of obs =                   1263
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
 logoilrevpc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 logORDdef2k |   .1667137   .0525164     3.17   0.002     .0636814    .2697459
    loggdppc |   1.055651   .0389009    27.14   0.000     .9793312    1.131971
   gdpgrowth |  -.0240152    .008174    -2.94   0.003    -.0400518   -.0079787
    polity68 |  -1.915019    .154516   -12.39   0.000    -2.218165   -1.611872
        top5 |   .5933858   .1325048     4.48   0.000     .3334237    .8533478
     lat_abs |  -.0269379    .003485    -7.73   0.000    -.0337752   -.0201005
         yr1 |  -1.670994   .4592143    -3.64   0.000     -2.57193   -.7700585
         yr2 |  -1.405556   .4641437    -3.03   0.003    -2.316163   -.4949493
         yr3 |   -1.44753   .4390532    -3.30   0.001    -2.308912   -.5861487
         yr4 |   -1.26254    .417857    -3.02   0.003    -2.082336    -.442743
         yr5 |  -1.008412   .4263469    -2.37   0.018    -1.844865   -.1719588
         yr6 |  -.8576769   .3912424    -2.19   0.029    -1.625258   -.0900956
         yr7 |   .0906832   .4084792     0.22   0.824    -.7107151    .8920814
         yr8 |   .2628155   .3758024     0.70   0.484    -.4744739    1.000105
         yr9 |   .0256909   .3889348     0.07   0.947     -.737363    .7887448
        yr10 |   .0929089   .3670632     0.25   0.800    -.6272349    .8130528
        yr11 |   .2899597   .3410599     0.85   0.395    -.3791682    .9590877
        yr12 |   1.178285    .331753     3.55   0.000     .5274168    1.829154
        yr13 |   .4856692   .3761801     1.29   0.197    -.2523612      1.2237
        yr14 |   .6249176   .3382054     1.85   0.065      -.03861    1.288445
        yr15 |   .3887717   .3230759     1.20   0.229    -.2450732    1.022617
        yr16 |   .3698668   .3119355     1.19   0.236    -.2421217    .9818553
        yr17 |   .5654506    .297306     1.90   0.057    -.0178363    1.148737
        yr18 |    .308762   .3002868     1.03   0.304    -.2803728    .8978968
        yr19 |  -.2766456    .296806    -0.93   0.351    -.8589514    .3056603
        yr20 |  -.2899414   .3165571    -0.92   0.360     -.910997    .3311142
        yr21 |  -.6323146   .3272938    -1.93   0.054    -1.274435    .0098055
        yr22 |  -.5265635    .330592    -1.59   0.111    -1.175154    .1220272
        yr23 |  -.2610678   .3341164    -0.78   0.435    -.9165731    .3944376
        yr24 |  -.0888957   .3016294    -0.29   0.768    -.6806645    .5028732
        yr25 |  -.4472817   .3189979    -1.40   0.161    -1.073126    .1785626
        yr26 |  -.4483693   .3000718    -1.49   0.135    -1.037082    .1403438
        yr27 |  -.6518011   .3164501    -2.06   0.040    -1.272647   -.0309554
        yr28 |     -.5528    .318416    -1.74   0.083    -1.177503    .0719027
        yr29 |  -.2413046   .3059855    -0.79   0.430    -.8416197    .3590105
        yr30 |  -.5224916   .3263871    -1.60   0.110    -1.162833    .1178496
        yr31 |  -.6028162   .3059836    -1.97   0.049    -1.203128   -.0025048
        yr32 |  -.4804771   .3159198    -1.52   0.129    -1.100282    .1393283
        yr33 |   .3413176   .2930708     1.16   0.244      -.23366    .9162952
        yr34 |   -.237513    .232702    -1.02   0.308    -.6940528    .2190268
        yr35 |          0  (omitted)
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
       _cons |  -4.826648   1.223484    -3.95   0.000    -7.227011   -2.426286
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
F test of excluded instruments:
  F(  1,  1222) =    10.08
  Prob > F      =   0.0015
Sanderson-Windmeijer multivariate F test of excluded instruments:
  F(  1,  1222) =    10.08
  Prob > F      =   0.0015



Summary results for first-stage regressions
-------------------------------------------

                                           (Underid)            (Weak id)
Variable     | F(  1,  1222)  P-val | SW Chi-sq(  1) P-val | SW F(  1,  1222)
logoilrevpc  |      10.08    0.0015 |       10.42   0.0012 |       10.08

NB: first-stage test statistics heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust

Stock-Yogo weak ID F test critical values for single endogenous regressor:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for i.i.d. errors only.

Underidentification test
Ho: matrix of reduced form coefficients has rank=K1-1 (underidentified)
Ha: matrix has rank=K1 (identified)
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic          Chi-sq(1)=10.07    P-val=0.0015

Weak identification test
Ho: equation is weakly identified
Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic                                      16.23
Kleibergen-Paap Wald rk F statistic                                10.08

Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values for K1=1 and L1=1:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.

Weak-instrument-robust inference
Tests of joint significance of endogenous regressors B1 in main equation
Ho: B1=0 and orthogonality conditions are valid
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           F(1,1222)=     39.82     P-val=0.0000
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           Chi-sq(1)=     41.16     P-val=0.0000
Stock-Wright LM S statistic        Chi-sq(1)=     66.89     P-val=0.0000

NB: Underidentification, weak identification and weak-identification-robust
    test statistics heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust

Number of observations               N  =       1263
Number of regressors                 K  =         41
Number of endogenous regressors      K1 =          1
Number of instruments                L  =         41
Number of excluded instruments       L1 =          1

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode

                                                      Number of obs =     1263
                                                      F( 40,  1222) =    12.74
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  195.1046405                Centered R2   =   0.0867
Total (uncentered) SS   =  514.0124959                Uncentered R2 =   0.6533
Residual SS             =  178.1851014                Root MSE      =    .3819

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 logoilrevpc |  -.2597095   .0823078    -3.16   0.002    -.4211898   -.0982292
    loggdppc |   .2935901   .0878094     3.34   0.001     .1213163     .465864
   gdpgrowth |  -.0085147   .0026498    -3.21   0.001    -.0137133    -.003316
    polity68 |   .2388764    .176517     1.35   0.176    -.1074336    .5851864
        top5 |   .1047042   .0627416     1.67   0.095    -.0183891    .2277975
     lat_abs |  -.0062992   .0024868    -2.53   0.011    -.0111781   -.0014203
         yr1 |   -.597991   .1805578    -3.31   0.001    -.9522287   -.2437533
         yr2 |  -.5538275   .1687201    -3.28   0.001    -.8848408   -.2228143
         yr3 |  -.5478601   .1615395    -3.39   0.001    -.8647856   -.2309346
         yr4 |  -.5005743   .1414917    -3.54   0.000     -.778168   -.2229807
         yr5 |   -.479415   .1321579    -3.63   0.000    -.7386965   -.2201334
         yr6 |  -.3869748   .1178298    -3.28   0.001     -.618146   -.1558036
         yr7 |  -.0780345   .1005461    -0.78   0.438    -.2752966    .1192276
         yr8 |    -.09196   .0931955    -0.99   0.324    -.2748009    .0908808
         yr9 |  -.0554388   .0980093    -0.57   0.572     -.247724    .1368464
        yr10 |  -.1047499   .0943472    -1.11   0.267    -.2898502    .0803505
        yr11 |  -.0819069   .0886409    -0.92   0.356    -.2558122    .0919983
        yr12 |   .1813816   .1302649     1.39   0.164    -.0741861    .4369493
        yr13 |   .1586931   .1242493     1.28   0.202    -.0850725    .4024588
        yr14 |   .0746819   .1037148     0.72   0.472    -.1287969    .2781607
        yr15 |   .0466079   .0956568     0.49   0.626    -.1410619    .2342776
        yr16 |   .0543186    .090112     0.60   0.547    -.1224727      .23111
        yr17 |   .0343919   .0855526     0.40   0.688    -.1334543    .2022381
        yr18 |   .0281773   .0798723     0.35   0.724    -.1285248    .1848794
        yr19 |  -.1434372   .0713287    -2.01   0.045    -.2833775   -.0034969
        yr20 |  -.1095154   .0727736    -1.50   0.133    -.2522904    .0332597
        yr21 |  -.1554688   .0739383    -2.10   0.036    -.3005288   -.0104088
        yr22 |  -.0941118   .0705753    -1.33   0.183    -.2325739    .0443503
        yr23 |   .0111773    .073041     0.15   0.878    -.1321223     .154477
        yr24 |  -.0242441    .072901    -0.33   0.740     -.167269    .1187808
        yr25 |    -.03033   .0715635    -0.42   0.672    -.1707309     .110071
        yr26 |  -.1134939   .0807811    -1.40   0.160    -.2719789    .0449911
        yr27 |  -.1144774   .0835801    -1.37   0.171    -.2784537    .0494989
        yr28 |  -.0949389   .0826969    -1.15   0.251    -.2571825    .0673047
        yr29 |  -.0376747   .0770838    -0.49   0.625    -.1889059    .1135564
        yr30 |  -.0578832   .0761139    -0.76   0.447    -.2072116    .0914452
        yr31 |  -.1611051   .0864444    -1.86   0.063    -.3307011    .0084908
        yr32 |  -.0603633   .0735073    -0.82   0.412    -.2045779    .0838513
        yr33 |   .0789493   .0788178     1.00   0.317    -.0756839    .2335825
        yr34 |    .009948   .0520255     0.19   0.848    -.0921213    .1120173
        yr35 |          0  (omitted)
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
       _cons |  -.2145721   .1395731    -1.54   0.124    -.4884016    .0592574
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             10.071
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0015
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               16.231
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         10.078
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hansen J statistic (overidentification test of all instruments):         0.000
                                                 (equation exactly identified)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         logoilrevpc
Included instruments: loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 top5 lat_abs yr1 yr2 yr3 yr4
                      yr5 yr6 yr7 yr8 yr9 yr10 yr11 yr12 yr13 yr14 yr15 yr16
                      yr17 yr18 yr19 yr20 yr21 yr22 yr23 yr24 yr25 yr26 yr27
                      yr28 yr29 yr30 yr31 yr32 yr33 yr34
Excluded instruments: logORDdef2k
Dropped collinear:    yr35 yr36 yr37 yr38
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(est9 stored)

. eststo: spivreg normpolity2 loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 top5 lat_abs yr* (logoilrevpc=logORDdef2k), dlmat(distmat) id(
> id)
warning: spatial-weighting matrix in distmat contains 324 islands
note: 45 instruments omitted from the H matrix because of collinearity
      see e(H_omitted) for names of the omitted instruments

Spatial autoregressive model                      Number of obs   =     1263
(GS2SLS estimates)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
normpolity2  |
 logoilrevpc |  -.0896687   .0088304   -10.15   0.000    -.1069759   -.0723615
    loggdppc |   .1179161   .0103886    11.35   0.000     .0975549    .1382773
   gdpgrowth |   -.004823   .0009984    -4.83   0.000    -.0067799   -.0028662
    polity68 |    .567322   .0232485    24.40   0.000     .5217558    .6128882
        top5 |  -.0002765   .0233461    -0.01   0.991    -.0460341    .0454811
     lat_abs |  -.0016428   .0004399    -3.73   0.000     -.002505   -.0007806
         yr1 |  -.2954313   .0598918    -4.93   0.000    -.4128169   -.1780456
         yr2 |  -.2865048   .0591466    -4.84   0.000    -.4024299   -.1705796
         yr3 |  -.2935139    .058868    -4.99   0.000     -.408893   -.1781348
         yr4 |  -.2759386   .0572678    -4.82   0.000    -.3881815   -.1636957
         yr5 |  -.2677118   .0561461    -4.77   0.000    -.3777561   -.1576674
         yr6 |  -.2238906   .0552476    -4.05   0.000     -.332174   -.1156072
         yr7 |  -.1149093   .0523449    -2.20   0.028    -.2175034   -.0123152
         yr8 |   -.125321   .0519614    -2.41   0.016    -.2271634   -.0234786
         yr9 |   -.121942   .0517893    -2.35   0.019    -.2234471   -.0204368
        yr10 |  -.1446918   .0515402    -2.81   0.005    -.2457087    -.043675
        yr11 |  -.1271846   .0515178    -2.47   0.014    -.2281576   -.0262116
        yr12 |          0  (omitted)
        yr13 |  -.0096037   .0509994    -0.19   0.851    -.1095607    .0903534
        yr14 |  -.0418021   .0501138    -0.83   0.404    -.1400233    .0564191
        yr15 |  -.0530519   .0502215    -1.06   0.291    -.1514842    .0453804
        yr16 |  -.0351038   .0502023    -0.70   0.484    -.1334985    .0632909
        yr17 |  -.0513404   .0501611    -1.02   0.306    -.1496544    .0469735
        yr18 |  -.0505197   .0502634    -1.01   0.315    -.1490342    .0479948
        yr19 |   -.112613    .051207    -2.20   0.028    -.2129768   -.0122491
        yr20 |  -.0969228   .0506778    -1.91   0.056    -.1962495    .0024039
        yr21 |  -.1033618   .0513824    -2.01   0.044    -.2040694   -.0026542
        yr22 |  -.0708347    .051054    -1.39   0.165    -.1708986    .0292293
        yr23 |  -.0209012   .0505598    -0.41   0.679    -.1199967    .0781942
        yr24 |  -.0274687     .05051    -0.54   0.587    -.1264665    .0715292
        yr25 |  -.0306294   .0494987    -0.62   0.536     -.127645    .0663861
        yr26 |  -.0731624   .0497667    -1.47   0.142    -.1707034    .0243786
        yr27 |  -.0679252    .049739    -1.37   0.172    -.1654119    .0295615
        yr28 |  -.0598233   .0495362    -1.21   0.227    -.1569125    .0372659
        yr29 |    -.03901    .048877    -0.80   0.425    -.1348072    .0567873
        yr30 |  -.0447869   .0490062    -0.91   0.361    -.1408373    .0512635
        yr31 |  -.0824755   .0496202    -1.66   0.096    -.1797293    .0147784
        yr32 |  -.0409439     .04866    -0.84   0.400    -.1363158     .054428
        yr33 |   .0152105   .0483476     0.31   0.753     -.079549      .10997
        yr34 |  -.0033357   .0485173    -0.07   0.945    -.0984278    .0917564
        yr35 |  -.0042376   .0488375    -0.09   0.931    -.0999573     .091482
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
       _cons |  -.0687477   .0516723    -1.33   0.183    -.1700236    .0325282
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lambda       |
       _cons |   .1084616   .0207583     5.22   0.000     .0677761    .1491471
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:  logoilrevpc
Instruments:   logORDdef2k
(est10 stored)

. 
. eststo: ivreg2 normpolity2 (logoilrevpc=logORDdef2k) loggdppc gdpgrowth yr* west, robust bw(2) first small
Warning: time variable year has 4 gap(s) in relevant range
Warning - collinearities detected
Vars dropped:       yr35 yr36 yr37 yr38

First-stage regressions
-----------------------


First-stage regression of logoilrevpc:

Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
Number of obs =                   1263
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
 logoilrevpc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 logORDdef2k |   .2437182   .0512506     4.76   0.000     .1431694    .3442669
    loggdppc |   .9786139   .0720861    13.58   0.000     .8371878     1.12004
   gdpgrowth |  -.0310475   .0094017    -3.30   0.001    -.0494927   -.0126024
         yr1 |  -1.717708   .4913997    -3.50   0.000    -2.681787   -.7536294
         yr2 |  -1.406124   .5198808    -2.70   0.007     -2.42608   -.3861676
         yr3 |  -1.504793   .4894253    -3.07   0.002    -2.464999   -.5445876
         yr4 |  -1.325699   .4700107    -2.82   0.005    -2.247815   -.4035829
         yr5 |  -.9630262    .488952    -1.97   0.049    -1.922303   -.0037494
         yr6 |  -.8813617   .4301606    -2.05   0.041    -1.725295   -.0374279
         yr7 |  -.0060189   .4585514    -0.01   0.990    -.9056527    .8936149
         yr8 |    .269379   .4205439     0.64   0.522    -.5556878    1.094446
         yr9 |  -.1430332   .4313309    -0.33   0.740    -.9892631    .7031967
        yr10 |   .0189019   .3932591     0.05   0.962    -.7526346    .7904384
        yr11 |   .2927182    .371039     0.79   0.430    -.4352247    1.020661
        yr12 |   1.244784   .3714655     3.35   0.001     .5160039    1.973563
        yr13 |   .2613787    .397441     0.66   0.511    -.5183624     1.04112
        yr14 |   .5901303   .3726452     1.58   0.114    -.1409639    1.321224
        yr15 |   .2877055   .3515357     0.82   0.413    -.4019737    .9773847
        yr16 |    .295101   .3368285     0.88   0.381    -.3657242    .9559262
        yr17 |   .5993705   .3258821     1.84   0.066    -.0399788     1.23872
        yr18 |   .2423255   .3230149     0.75   0.453    -.3913987    .8760497
        yr19 |   -.320056   .3194827    -1.00   0.317    -.9468505    .3067385
        yr20 |  -.3838824   .3346236    -1.15   0.252    -1.040382     .272617
        yr21 |  -.7695373   .3440466    -2.24   0.025    -1.444524   -.0945509
        yr22 |  -.6899067   .3535272    -1.95   0.051    -1.383493    .0036798
        yr23 |  -.4175746   .3616632    -1.15   0.248    -1.127123    .2919739
        yr24 |  -.0814273   .3295914    -0.25   0.805    -.7280539    .5651994
        yr25 |  -.6615658   .3315569    -2.00   0.046    -1.312049   -.0110829
        yr26 |  -.5844302   .3229295    -1.81   0.071    -1.217987    .0491264
        yr27 |  -.8554624   .3333101    -2.57   0.010    -1.509385   -.2015399
        yr28 |  -.7337262   .3343976    -2.19   0.028    -1.389782   -.0776702
        yr29 |  -.3646499   .3241908    -1.12   0.261    -1.000681    .2713812
        yr30 |  -.7360849    .341562    -2.16   0.031    -1.406197   -.0659731
        yr31 |  -.6855441   .3243998    -2.11   0.035    -1.321985   -.0491029
        yr32 |  -.6632226   .3263135    -2.03   0.042    -1.303418   -.0230268
        yr33 |   .3159882   .3126436     1.01   0.312    -.2973885    .9293648
        yr34 |  -.3787739   .2405313    -1.57   0.116    -.8506733    .0931255
        yr35 |          0  (omitted)
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
        west |  -1.725937   .2631019    -6.56   0.000    -2.242118   -1.209756
       _cons |  -6.973463   1.361558    -5.12   0.000    -9.644708   -4.302218
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
F test of excluded instruments:
  F(  1,  1224) =    22.61
  Prob > F      =   0.0000
Sanderson-Windmeijer multivariate F test of excluded instruments:
  F(  1,  1224) =    22.61
  Prob > F      =   0.0000



Summary results for first-stage regressions
-------------------------------------------

                                           (Underid)            (Weak id)
Variable     | F(  1,  1224)  P-val | SW Chi-sq(  1) P-val | SW F(  1,  1224)
logoilrevpc  |      22.61    0.0000 |       23.33   0.0000 |       22.61

NB: first-stage test statistics heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust

Stock-Yogo weak ID F test critical values for single endogenous regressor:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for i.i.d. errors only.

Underidentification test
Ho: matrix of reduced form coefficients has rank=K1-1 (underidentified)
Ha: matrix has rank=K1 (identified)
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic          Chi-sq(1)=23.69    P-val=0.0000

Weak identification test
Ho: equation is weakly identified
Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic                                      29.34
Kleibergen-Paap Wald rk F statistic                                22.61

Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values for K1=1 and L1=1:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.

Weak-instrument-robust inference
Tests of joint significance of endogenous regressors B1 in main equation
Ho: B1=0 and orthogonality conditions are valid
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           F(1,1224)=     69.21     P-val=0.0000
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           Chi-sq(1)=     71.42     P-val=0.0000
Stock-Wright LM S statistic        Chi-sq(1)=     71.80     P-val=0.0000

NB: Underidentification, weak identification and weak-identification-robust
    test statistics heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust

Number of observations               N  =       1263
Number of regressors                 K  =         39
Number of endogenous regressors      K1 =          1
Number of instruments                L  =         39
Number of excluded instruments       L1 =          1

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode

                                                      Number of obs =     1263
                                                      F( 38,  1224) =     5.26
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  195.1046405                Centered R2   =  -0.7699
Total (uncentered) SS   =  514.0124959                Uncentered R2 =   0.3282
Residual SS             =  345.3253792                Root MSE      =    .5312

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 logoilrevpc |  -.3569665   .0768971    -4.64   0.000    -.5078313   -.2061018
    loggdppc |   .3706011   .0767203     4.83   0.000     .2200832     .521119
   gdpgrowth |  -.0112404    .003613    -3.11   0.002    -.0183287   -.0041521
         yr1 |  -.7456815   .2102068    -3.55   0.000    -1.158087    -.333276
         yr2 |  -.6783659   .2005502    -3.38   0.001    -1.071826   -.2849057
         yr3 |    -.66427   .1948985    -3.41   0.001    -1.046642   -.2818978
         yr4 |  -.6087749   .1785992    -3.41   0.001    -.9591693   -.2583805
         yr5 |  -.5767933     .16716    -3.45   0.001    -.9047451   -.2488415
         yr6 |  -.4574392   .1539524    -2.97   0.003     -.759479   -.1553995
         yr7 |  -.0326448   .1424075    -0.23   0.819    -.3120347    .2467451
         yr8 |  -.0474543   .1292341    -0.37   0.714    -.3009991    .2060906
         yr9 |   .0116248   .1330404     0.09   0.930    -.2493877    .2726373
        yr10 |  -.0530292   .1274594    -0.42   0.677    -.3030922    .1970338
        yr11 |  -.0280958   .1191608    -0.24   0.814     -.261878    .2056863
        yr12 |   .3137829   .1535261     2.04   0.041     .0125794    .6149865
        yr13 |   .2825572   .1475651     1.91   0.056    -.0069514    .5720657
        yr14 |   .1616965   .1303775     1.24   0.215    -.0940917    .4174847
        yr15 |   .1230489    .120823     1.02   0.309    -.1139943    .3600921
        yr16 |   .1253791   .1131225     1.11   0.268    -.0965563    .3473146
        yr17 |   .1051082   .1088809     0.97   0.335    -.1085058    .3187221
        yr18 |   .0921085   .1028489     0.90   0.371    -.1096713    .2938882
        yr19 |  -.1426549   .0966509    -1.48   0.140    -.3322746    .0469649
        yr20 |  -.0984303   .0993273    -0.99   0.322     -.293301    .0964404
        yr21 |  -.1644395   .0997548    -1.65   0.100    -.3601488    .0312698
        yr22 |  -.0870788   .0970379    -0.90   0.370    -.2774579    .1033003
        yr23 |   .0403209    .098743     0.41   0.683    -.1534035    .2340452
        yr24 |  -.0126584   .0988047    -0.13   0.898    -.2065037    .1811869
        yr25 |  -.0421476   .0955696    -0.44   0.659     -.229646    .1453508
        yr26 |  -.1480929   .1037433    -1.43   0.154    -.3516273    .0554416
        yr27 |  -.1518638    .105882    -1.43   0.152    -.3595942    .0558665
        yr28 |  -.1242249   .1052882    -1.18   0.238    -.3307902    .0823404
        yr29 |  -.0452143   .0993163    -0.46   0.649    -.2400634    .1496348
        yr30 |  -.0719139   .0974571    -0.74   0.461    -.2631153    .1192876
        yr31 |  -.2163332   .1049767    -2.06   0.040    -.4222873    -.010379
        yr32 |   -.081811   .0937515    -0.87   0.383    -.2657425    .1021205
        yr33 |   .1072278   .0979101     1.10   0.274    -.0848625    .2993181
        yr34 |   .0109869   .0665993     0.16   0.869    -.1196747    .1416484
        yr35 |          0  (omitted)
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
        west |  -.1013456   .1649597    -0.61   0.539    -.4249807    .2222895
       _cons |  -.3180606   .2053001    -1.55   0.122    -.7208397    .0847184
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             23.691
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               29.340
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         22.614
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hansen J statistic (overidentification test of all instruments):         0.000
                                                 (equation exactly identified)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         logoilrevpc
Included instruments: loggdppc gdpgrowth yr1 yr2 yr3 yr4 yr5 yr6 yr7 yr8 yr9
                      yr10 yr11 yr12 yr13 yr14 yr15 yr16 yr17 yr18 yr19 yr20
                      yr21 yr22 yr23 yr24 yr25 yr26 yr27 yr28 yr29 yr30 yr31
                      yr32 yr33 yr34 west
Excluded instruments: logORDdef2k
Dropped collinear:    yr35 yr36 yr37 yr38
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(est11 stored)

. eststo: spivreg normpolity2 loggdppc gdpgrowth yr* west (logoilrevpc=logORDdef2k), dlmat(distmat) id(id)
warning: spatial-weighting matrix in distmat contains 324 islands
note: 45 instruments omitted from the H matrix because of collinearity
      see e(H_omitted) for names of the omitted instruments

Spatial autoregressive model                      Number of obs   =     1263
(GS2SLS estimates)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
normpolity2  |
 logoilrevpc |  -.1767315   .0160874   -10.99   0.000    -.2082622   -.1452007
    loggdppc |   .2016178   .0172493    11.69   0.000     .1678099    .2354258
   gdpgrowth |  -.0060138   .0015549    -3.87   0.000    -.0090613   -.0029663
         yr1 |          0  (omitted)
         yr2 |   .0248145   .0863665     0.29   0.774    -.1444608    .1940898
         yr3 |   .0254186     .08643     0.29   0.769    -.1439811    .1948183
         yr4 |   .0510991   .0851403     0.60   0.548    -.1157728     .217971
         yr5 |   .0634484   .0840013     0.76   0.450     -.101191    .2280879
         yr6 |    .133195   .0846284     1.57   0.116    -.0326736    .2990636
         yr7 |   .3405499    .089336     3.81   0.000     .1654545    .5156453
         yr8 |   .3263946   .0888437     3.67   0.000     .1522642    .5005251
         yr9 |   .3448566   .0903722     3.82   0.000     .1677304    .5219828
        yr10 |   .3110113   .0887025     3.51   0.000     .1371575    .4848651
        yr11 |    .330982   .0888394     3.73   0.000       .15686     .505104
        yr12 |   .5250431   .0945613     5.55   0.000     .3397063    .7103799
        yr13 |    .509526   .0938463     5.43   0.000     .3255906    .6934614
        yr14 |   .4471428   .0900905     4.96   0.000     .2705686     .623717
        yr15 |   .4273092   .0893623     4.78   0.000     .2521623    .6024561
        yr16 |   .4391021   .0888912     4.94   0.000     .2648786    .6133256
        yr17 |   .4204575   .0887942     4.74   0.000      .246424     .594491
        yr18 |   .4170429    .088352     4.72   0.000     .2438761    .5902097
        yr19 |   .2992525   .0845813     3.54   0.000     .1334762    .4650288
        yr20 |   .3225202   .0847646     3.80   0.000     .1563846    .4886558
        yr21 |   .2971248   .0839449     3.54   0.000     .1325958    .4616537
        yr22 |    .343894   .0847552     4.06   0.000     .1777768    .5100112
        yr23 |   .4100368   .0864048     4.75   0.000     .2406865    .5793871
        yr24 |   .3876201   .0849484     4.56   0.000     .2211244    .5541158
        yr25 |   .3726703   .0831199     4.48   0.000     .2097583    .5355823
        yr26 |   .3158651   .0815173     3.87   0.000     .1560941     .475636
        yr27 |   .3167647   .0812344     3.90   0.000     .1575483    .4759812
        yr28 |   .3301799   .0815207     4.05   0.000     .1704023    .4899575
        yr29 |   .3674733   .0823992     4.46   0.000      .205974    .5289727
        yr30 |   .3550521   .0820098     4.33   0.000      .194316    .5157883
        yr31 |   .2823847   .0798482     3.54   0.000     .1258851    .4388843
        yr32 |   .3531545   .0812278     4.35   0.000     .1939509     .512358
        yr33 |   .4528542   .0847015     5.35   0.000     .2868424     .618866
        yr34 |   .4083902    .082579     4.95   0.000     .2465383    .5702421
        yr35 |   .4061508   .0826033     4.92   0.000     .2442513    .5680504
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
        west |   .2013866    .040234     5.01   0.000     .1225295    .2802438
       _cons |  -.5043256   .1019872    -4.94   0.000    -.7042168   -.3044344
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lambda       |
       _cons |   .1131726   .0345693     3.27   0.001      .045418    .1809272
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:  logoilrevpc
Instruments:   logORDdef2k
(est12 stored)

. 
. eststo: ivreg2 normpolity2 (logoilrevpc=logORDdef2k) loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 yr* west regions3, robust bw(2) first
>  small
Warning: time variable year has 4 gap(s) in relevant range
Warning - collinearities detected
Vars dropped:       yr35 yr36 yr37 yr38

First-stage regressions
-----------------------


First-stage regression of logoilrevpc:

Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
Number of obs =                   1263
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
 logoilrevpc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 logORDdef2k |   .0966384   .0551467     1.75   0.080    -.0115542     .204831
    loggdppc |   1.067515   .0551367    19.36   0.000     .9593419    1.175688
   gdpgrowth |  -.0225268   .0080994    -2.78   0.005    -.0384171   -.0066366
    polity68 |   -1.66282   .2413629    -6.89   0.000    -2.136351   -1.189288
         yr1 |  -1.634792   .4670044    -3.50   0.000    -2.551012    -.718573
         yr2 |  -1.349914   .4641056    -2.91   0.004    -2.260446   -.4393818
         yr3 |  -1.341537   .4430605    -3.03   0.003     -2.21078   -.4722931
         yr4 |   -1.17812   .4284796    -2.75   0.006    -2.018757   -.3374826
         yr5 |  -1.023215   .4376835    -2.34   0.020     -1.88191   -.1645209
         yr6 |  -.8169399   .4100505    -1.99   0.047    -1.621421   -.0124588
         yr7 |   .2218421   .4203632     0.53   0.598    -.6028715    1.046556
         yr8 |   .3305825   .3843527     0.86   0.390    -.4234818    1.084647
         yr9 |   .2731422   .3980673     0.69   0.493     -.507829    1.054113
        yr10 |   .2323675   .3810929     0.61   0.542    -.5153015    .9800365
        yr11 |   .3570278   .3487735     1.02   0.306    -.3272333    1.041289
        yr12 |   1.200608   .3385991     3.55   0.000     .5363083    1.864908
        yr13 |   .7657072     .38259     2.00   0.046     .0151012    1.516313
        yr14 |   .6898988   .3384992     2.04   0.042     .0257947    1.354003
        yr15 |   .5104998   .3234111     1.58   0.115    -.1240027    1.145002
        yr16 |   .4728678   .3115298     1.52   0.129    -.1383247     1.08406
        yr17 |   .5779388    .297715     1.94   0.052    -.0061503    1.162028
        yr18 |   .4048128   .2998888     1.35   0.177    -.1835412    .9931667
        yr19 |  -.2048228   .2972579    -0.69   0.491    -.7880153    .3783697
        yr20 |  -.1555754   .3127433    -0.50   0.619    -.7691488    .4579979
        yr21 |  -.4535538   .3226706    -1.41   0.160    -1.086604     .179496
        yr22 |   -.323891   .3295974    -0.98   0.326    -.9705305    .3227485
        yr23 |  -.0535091   .3320653    -0.16   0.872    -.7049904    .5979722
        yr24 |  -.0223461   .2983306    -0.07   0.940     -.607643    .5629508
        yr25 |  -.2768397   .3164453    -0.87   0.382     -.897676    .3439967
        yr26 |  -.3717518   .2934617    -1.27   0.205    -.9474964    .2039927
        yr27 |  -.5064684   .3104781    -1.63   0.103    -1.115598    .1026607
        yr28 |  -.4204351   .3108151    -1.35   0.176    -1.030226    .1893553
        yr29 |  -.1495551   .2955828    -0.51   0.613    -.7294611    .4303508
        yr30 |  -.3450622   .3186293    -1.08   0.279    -.9701834    .2800589
        yr31 |  -.5565877   .2934107    -1.90   0.058    -1.132232    .0190568
        yr32 |  -.3388885   .3068331    -1.10   0.270    -.9408666    .2630896
        yr33 |   .3329389   .2858101     1.16   0.244    -.2277941    .8936718
        yr34 |  -.1195776   .2266062    -0.53   0.598     -.564158    .3250028
        yr35 |          0  (omitted)
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
        west |  -.7342684   .3082671    -2.38   0.017     -1.33906   -.1294769
    regions3 |   1.061377   .1139913     9.31   0.000     .8377367    1.285017
       _cons |  -4.201027    1.38657    -3.03   0.002    -6.921349   -1.480704
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
F test of excluded instruments:
  F(  1,  1222) =     3.07
  Prob > F      =   0.0800
Sanderson-Windmeijer multivariate F test of excluded instruments:
  F(  1,  1222) =     3.07
  Prob > F      =   0.0800



Summary results for first-stage regressions
-------------------------------------------

                                           (Underid)            (Weak id)
Variable     | F(  1,  1222)  P-val | SW Chi-sq(  1) P-val | SW F(  1,  1222)
logoilrevpc  |       3.07    0.0800 |        3.17   0.0748 |        3.07

NB: first-stage test statistics heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust

Stock-Yogo weak ID F test critical values for single endogenous regressor:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for i.i.d. errors only.

Underidentification test
Ho: matrix of reduced form coefficients has rank=K1-1 (underidentified)
Ha: matrix has rank=K1 (identified)
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic          Chi-sq(1)=3.16     P-val=0.0756

Weak identification test
Ho: equation is weakly identified
Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic                                       5.24
Kleibergen-Paap Wald rk F statistic                                 3.07

Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values for K1=1 and L1=1:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.

Weak-instrument-robust inference
Tests of joint significance of endogenous regressors B1 in main equation
Ho: B1=0 and orthogonality conditions are valid
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           F(1,1222)=     41.05     P-val=0.0000
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           Chi-sq(1)=     42.43     P-val=0.0000
Stock-Wright LM S statistic        Chi-sq(1)=     67.50     P-val=0.0000

NB: Underidentification, weak identification and weak-identification-robust
    test statistics heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust

Number of observations               N  =       1263
Number of regressors                 K  =         41
Number of endogenous regressors      K1 =          1
Number of instruments                L  =         41
Number of excluded instruments       L1 =          1

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode

                                                      Number of obs =     1263
                                                      F( 40,  1222) =     4.98
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  195.1046405                Centered R2   =  -1.6985
Total (uncentered) SS   =  514.0124959                Uncentered R2 =  -0.0243
Residual SS             =     526.4978                Root MSE      =    .6564

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 logoilrevpc |   -.452601   .2516796    -1.80   0.072    -.9463729     .041171
    loggdppc |   .4922754   .2648215     1.86   0.063    -.0272799    1.011831
   gdpgrowth |  -.0127014   .0065456    -1.94   0.053    -.0255432    .0001404
    polity68 |  -.0507308   .4634427    -0.11   0.913    -.9599624    .8585008
         yr1 |   -.905805   .4606445    -1.97   0.049    -1.809547   -.0020633
         yr2 |  -.8024048   .4120473    -1.95   0.052    -1.610803    .0059937
         yr3 |  -.7812008   .3933093    -1.99   0.047    -1.552837   -.0095644
         yr4 |  -.7083444   .3505964    -2.02   0.044    -1.396182   -.0205067
         yr5 |  -.6832398   .3330381    -2.05   0.040     -1.33663     -.02985
         yr6 |  -.5363993   .2652397    -2.02   0.043    -1.056775   -.0160235
         yr7 |  -.0012771    .193979    -0.01   0.995    -.3818459    .3792917
         yr8 |  -.0127862   .1775871    -0.07   0.943    -.3611956    .3356231
         yr9 |   .0618233   .2058943     0.30   0.764    -.3421222    .4657688
        yr10 |  -.0250268   .1844458    -0.14   0.892    -.3868923    .3368387
        yr11 |   .0025039   .1743349     0.01   0.989     -.339525    .3445329
        yr12 |   .4174673   .3332364     1.25   0.211    -.2363116    1.071246
        yr13 |   .3791983   .3141624     1.21   0.228    -.2371591    .9955557
        yr14 |   .2237081   .2350215     0.95   0.341    -.2373823    .6847984
        yr15 |   .1758742   .2092503     0.84   0.401    -.2346556    .5864039
        yr16 |    .171601   .1930488     0.89   0.374    -.2071429    .5503448
        yr17 |   .1483936   .1870674     0.79   0.428    -.2186153    .5154025
        yr18 |   .1306399   .1718535     0.76   0.447    -.2065207    .4678004
        yr19 |  -.1652168   .1241455    -1.33   0.183    -.4087788    .0783452
        yr20 |  -.1058531   .1221364    -0.87   0.386    -.3454734    .1337672
        yr21 |  -.1973146   .1333442    -1.48   0.139    -.4589236    .0642944
        yr22 |  -.1045158   .1207699    -0.87   0.387    -.3414551    .1324234
        yr23 |   .0519712   .1290755     0.40   0.687    -.2012629    .3052054
        yr24 |  -.0152239   .1202537    -0.13   0.899    -.2511505    .2207027
        yr25 |   -.041354   .1149428    -0.36   0.719    -.2668611    .1841531
        yr26 |  -.1681202   .1398238    -1.20   0.229    -.4424415     .106201
        yr27 |   -.176454   .1466839    -1.20   0.229    -.4642342    .1113261
        yr28 |  -.1432746   .1384654    -1.03   0.301    -.4149308    .1283816
        yr29 |  -.0435338   .1187905    -0.37   0.714    -.2765896    .1895221
        yr30 |  -.0782981   .1203829    -0.65   0.516    -.3144783     .157882
        yr31 |  -.2574343   .1719195    -1.50   0.135    -.5947244    .0798558
        yr32 |  -.0888288   .1191358    -0.75   0.456    -.3225623    .1449046
        yr33 |   .1411081   .1429688     0.99   0.324    -.1393834    .4215995
        yr34 |    .018221   .0821877     0.22   0.825    -.1430237    .1794656
        yr35 |          0  (omitted)
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
        west |  -.2349726   .2176848    -1.08   0.281      -.66205    .1921048
    regions3 |   .4618805    .275554     1.68   0.094     -.078731    1.002492
       _cons |   -.755445   .5347111    -1.41   0.158    -1.804498    .2936085
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):              3.156
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0756
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):                5.238
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):          3.071
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hansen J statistic (overidentification test of all instruments):         0.000
                                                 (equation exactly identified)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         logoilrevpc
Included instruments: loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 yr1 yr2 yr3 yr4 yr5 yr6 yr7
                      yr8 yr9 yr10 yr11 yr12 yr13 yr14 yr15 yr16 yr17 yr18 yr19
                      yr20 yr21 yr22 yr23 yr24 yr25 yr26 yr27 yr28 yr29 yr30
                      yr31 yr32 yr33 yr34 west regions3
Excluded instruments: logORDdef2k
Dropped collinear:    yr35 yr36 yr37 yr38
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(est13 stored)

. eststo: spivreg normpolity2 loggdppc gdpgrowth polity68 yr* west regions3 (logoilrevpc=logORDdef2k), dlmat(distmat) id
> (id)
warning: spatial-weighting matrix in distmat contains 324 islands
note: 46 instruments omitted from the H matrix because of collinearity
      see e(H_omitted) for names of the omitted instruments

Spatial autoregressive model                      Number of obs   =     1263
(GS2SLS estimates)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 normpolity2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
normpolity2  |
 logoilrevpc |   -.098909   .0115144    -8.59   0.000    -.1214767   -.0763413
    loggdppc |   .1218163   .0132595     9.19   0.000     .0958282    .1478045
   gdpgrowth |  -.0051359    .001033    -4.97   0.000    -.0071605   -.0031112
    polity68 |   .5494991   .0270606    20.31   0.000     .4964613    .6025368
         yr1 |     -.4083     .07234    -5.64   0.000    -.5500838   -.2665161
         yr2 |  -.3938514   .0709782    -5.55   0.000    -.5329662   -.2547366
         yr3 |   -.399909   .0705062    -5.67   0.000    -.5380987   -.2617193
         yr4 |  -.3823224   .0685787    -5.57   0.000    -.5167341   -.2479106
         yr5 |  -.3757205   .0678956    -5.53   0.000    -.5087934   -.2426476
         yr6 |  -.3294892   .0661087    -4.98   0.000    -.4590598   -.1999186
         yr7 |  -.2087837   .0609828    -3.42   0.001    -.3283079   -.0892595
         yr8 |  -.2191936   .0603655    -3.63   0.000    -.3375078   -.1008794
         yr9 |  -.2132225    .060445    -3.53   0.000    -.3316925   -.0947524
        yr10 |   -.239706   .0599999    -4.00   0.000    -.3573037   -.1221084
        yr11 |  -.2222633   .0598961    -3.71   0.000    -.3396576   -.1048691
        yr12 |   -.087873   .0582922    -1.51   0.132    -.2021236    .0263775
        yr13 |  -.0984641    .058302    -1.69   0.091    -.2127339    .0158057
        yr14 |  -.1359769   .0577627    -2.35   0.019    -.2491896   -.0227641
        yr15 |  -.1484181   .0579803    -2.56   0.010    -.2620575   -.0347787
        yr16 |  -.1309881     .05828    -2.25   0.025    -.2452149   -.0167614
        yr17 |  -.1469605   .0585476    -2.51   0.012    -.2617118   -.0322093
        yr18 |  -.1475017   .0586583    -2.51   0.012    -.2624698   -.0325336
        yr19 |  -.2156473   .0610901    -3.53   0.000    -.3353816   -.0959129
        yr20 |  -.1982347   .0599886    -3.30   0.001    -.3158103   -.0806592
        yr21 |  -.2070102   .0615252    -3.36   0.001    -.3275974    -.086423
        yr22 |  -.1731631   .0608339    -2.85   0.004    -.2923954   -.0539308
        yr23 |  -.1239962   .0595504    -2.08   0.037    -.2407129   -.0072795
        yr24 |  -.1320347   .0598896    -2.20   0.027    -.2494161   -.0146532
        yr25 |  -.1376095   .0586412    -2.35   0.019    -.2525442   -.0226748
        yr26 |  -.1819692   .0592255    -3.07   0.002     -.298049   -.0658895
        yr27 |  -.1769668   .0595487    -2.97   0.003    -.2936802   -.0602535
        yr28 |  -.1678486   .0593954    -2.83   0.005    -.2842615   -.0514358
        yr29 |  -.1441751   .0584847    -2.47   0.014    -.2588029   -.0295473
        yr30 |  -.1501392     .05893    -2.55   0.011    -.2656399   -.0346385
        yr31 |   -.191735   .0604256    -3.17   0.002    -.3101671   -.0733029
        yr32 |  -.1464956   .0586017    -2.50   0.012    -.2613529   -.0316384
        yr33 |   -.086255   .0574705    -1.50   0.133    -.1988951    .0263852
        yr34 |  -.1069204   .0584329    -1.83   0.067    -.2214467    .0076059
        yr35 |  -.1079838   .0590258    -1.83   0.067    -.2236722    .0077045
        yr36 |          0  (omitted)
        yr37 |          0  (omitted)
        yr38 |          0  (omitted)
        west |   .0078957   .0238092     0.33   0.740    -.0387695     .054561
    regions3 |   .0949399   .0232873     4.08   0.000     .0492976    .1405822
       _cons |          0  (omitted)
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lambda       |
       _cons |   .1303362   .0200877     6.49   0.000     .0909651    .1697074
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:  logoilrevpc
Instruments:   logORDdef2k
(est14 stored)

. 
. /// outputs raw table, need to format, delete years and change variable names. Constan lambda is \rho_y in manuscript
> esttab using "Table_D1.tex", label se star(* 0.1 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) t(3) replace 
(note: file Table_D1.tex not found)
(output written to Table_D1.tex)

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
end of do-file

. do TablesE2E3_AshrafGalor.do

. ********************************************************
. ******          Replication Code for              ******
. ******      Spatial Interdependence                       ******
. ******       and Instrumental Variable Models     ******
. ******                                                                            ******    
. ********************************************************
. ******                                            ******  
. ******                9/17/2018                   ******         
. ******     this file runs stata code to estimate  ******
. ******      the models for Ashraf & Galor 2011    ******
. ********************************************************
. 
. 
. 
. // requires the package  sg162.pkg  Tools for spatial data analysis
. 
. clear all

. import delimited W_E2.csv
(92 vars, 92 obs)

. mkmat v1-v92, matrix(W)

. save "W_E2.dta", replace
(note: file W_E2.dta not found)
file W_E2.dta saved

. 
. spmat dta distmat v1-v92
warning: spatial-weighting matrix contains 7 islands

. 
. use "AshrafGalor_data_E2.dta",clear

. 
. ******* 1000CE ******* Table E2
. eststo clear

. eststo: reg ln_pd1000 ln_CEtech1K pc_lnar_lnas ln_abslat distcr1000 land100cr africa europe asia if cleanpdtech1000iv=
> =1, robust 

Linear regression                               Number of obs     =         92
                                                F(8, 83)          =      16.49
                                                Prob > F          =     0.0000
                                                R-squared         =     0.5494
                                                Root MSE          =     .96607

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
   ln_pd1000 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 ln_CEtech1K |   4.197737   1.163882     3.61   0.001     1.882823    6.512651
pc_lnar_lnas |   .4978017   .1393443     3.57   0.001     .2206515     .774952
   ln_abslat |   -.185093   .1512437    -1.22   0.224    -.4859105    .1157246
  distcr1000 |   -.362787    .426247    -0.85   0.397    -1.210575     .485001
   land100cr |   .4424617   .4216802     1.05   0.297    -.3962431    1.281167
      africa |   .3534707   .2916073     1.21   0.229    -.2265245     .933466
      europe |   .6168926   .4221045     1.46   0.148    -.2226562    1.456441
        asia |   .6134605   .4710575     1.30   0.196    -.3234539    1.550375
       _cons |  -1.819912   .6413246    -2.84   0.006    -3.095481   -.5443429
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(est1 stored)

. predict resid, residuals

. spatwmat using "W_E2.dta", name("weights")


The following matrix has been created:

1. Imported non-binary weights matrix weights 
   Dimension: 92x92

   Beware! 7 locations have no neighbors



. spatgsa resid, weights(weights) moran


Measures of global spatial autocorrelation


Weights matrix
--------------------------------------------------------------
Name: weights
Type: Imported (non-binary)
Row-standardized: No
--------------------------------------------------------------

Moran's I
--------------------------------------------------------------
          Variables |    I      E(I)   sd(I)     z    p-value*
--------------------+-----------------------------------------
              resid |  0.375  -0.011   0.101   3.812   0.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
*1-tail test



. 
. eststo: spreg ml ln_pd1000 ln_CEtech1K pc_lnar_lnas ln_abslat distcr1000 land100cr africa europe asia, dlmat(distmat) 
> id(id)
warning: spatial-weighting matrix in distmat contains 7 islands

Performing a grid search.... finished

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -109.6029  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -109.42248  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -109.42222  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -109.42222  

Optimizing unconcentrated log likelihood

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -109.42222  

Spatial autoregressive model                      Number of obs   =       92
(Maximum likelihood estimates)                    Wald chi2(8)    =  58.9774
                                                  Prob > chi2     =   0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   ln_pd1000 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
ln_pd1000    |
 ln_CEtech1K |   3.208694   .9379863     3.42   0.001     1.370275    5.047114
pc_lnar_lnas |   .4304833   .0951184     4.53   0.000     .2440546     .616912
   ln_abslat |  -.1243731   .1052042    -1.18   0.237    -.3305696    .0818235
  distcr1000 |    -.50861   .3590601    -1.42   0.157    -1.212355    .1951347
   land100cr |   .3060898   .3397369     0.90   0.368    -.3597823     .971962
      africa |   .2689355   .2701557     1.00   0.320      -.26056     .798431
      europe |  -.0216008   .4216869    -0.05   0.959     -.848092    .8048904
        asia |   .1435558   .3805912     0.38   0.706    -.6023893    .8895008
       _cons |  -1.311168   .5287188    -2.48   0.013    -2.347438   -.2748981
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lambda       |
       _cons |   .4554408   .0768216     5.93   0.000     .3048732    .6060083
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sigma2       |
       _cons |   .5788163   .0874436     6.62   0.000     .4074301    .7502025
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(est2 stored)

. matrix b = e(b)

. scalar b1 = b[1,1]

. scalar rho = b[1,10]

. matrix I = I(92)

. 
. matrix spatialbetas = inv(I - rho*W)*b1

. di trace(spatialbetas)/92
3.5218512

. 
. 
. eststo: ivregress 2sls ln_pd1000 (ln_CEtech1K = plants animals) pc_lnar_lnas ln_abslat distcr1000 land100cr africa eur
> ope asia if cleanpdtech1000iv==1, robust 

Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression          Number of obs   =         92
                                                  Wald chi2(8)    =     115.09
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
                                                  R-squared       =     0.1275
                                                  Root MSE        =     1.2768

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
   ln_pd1000 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 ln_CEtech1K |   14.53007   4.436751     3.27   0.001     5.834193    23.22594
pc_lnar_lnas |   .5715773   .1484186     3.85   0.000     .2806822    .8624724
   ln_abslat |  -.2089959   .2094209    -1.00   0.318    -.6194532    .2014615
  distcr1000 |  -1.155012    .640194    -1.80   0.071    -2.409769     .099745
   land100cr |   .1526706    .605852     0.25   0.801    -1.034778    1.340119
      africa |  -.8585614   .6956353    -1.23   0.217    -2.221982    .5048588
      europe |  -2.546095   1.439853    -1.77   0.077    -5.368155    .2759642
        asia |   -2.35543   1.454903    -1.62   0.105    -5.206988    .4961273
       _cons |  -5.507328   1.701981    -3.24   0.001    -8.843149   -2.171506
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:  ln_CEtech1K
Instruments:   pc_lnar_lnas ln_abslat distcr1000 land100cr africa europe
               asia plants animals
(est3 stored)

. eststo: spivreg ln_pd1000 pc_lnar_lnas ln_abslat distcr1000 land100cr africa europe asia (ln_CEtech1K = plants animals
> ), dlmat(distmat) id(id)
warning: spatial-weighting matrix in distmat contains 7 islands

Spatial autoregressive model                      Number of obs   =       92
(GS2SLS estimates)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   ln_pd1000 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
ln_pd1000    |
 ln_CEtech1K |   6.492308    1.61389     4.02   0.000     3.329141    9.655475
pc_lnar_lnas |   .4577208   .1031541     4.44   0.000     .2555425    .6598992
   ln_abslat |  -.1356463   .1132602    -1.20   0.231    -.3576321    .0863396
  distcr1000 |  -.7464312   .3950297    -1.89   0.059    -1.520675    .0278127
   land100cr |   .2243211   .3656199     0.61   0.540    -.4922808    .9409229
      africa |  -.1036282   .3212269    -0.32   0.747    -.7332214    .5259649
      europe |  -.9675685   .5808804    -1.67   0.096    -2.106073    .1709362
        asia |  -.7525056   .5314638    -1.42   0.157    -1.794156    .2891443
       _cons |  -2.492831   .7303378    -3.41   0.001    -3.924267   -1.061395
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lambda       |
       _cons |   .4267819   .1177808     3.62   0.000     .1959358    .6576279
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:  ln_CEtech1K
Instruments:   plants animals
(est4 stored)

. 
. 
. matrix b = e(b)

. scalar b1 = b[1,1]

. scalar rho = b[1,10]

. matrix I = I(92)

. 
. matrix spatialbetas = inv(I - rho*W)*b1

. di trace(spatialbetas)/92
7.0337756

. 
. 
. esttab using "Table_E2.tex", label se star(* 0.1 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) r2 replace 
(note: file Table_E2.tex not found)
(output written to Table_E2.tex)

. 
. 
. clear all

. import delimited W_E3.csv
(83 vars, 83 obs)

. 
. spmat dta distmat v1-v83
warning: spatial-weighting matrix contains 6 islands

. 
. use "AshrafGalor_data_E3.dta",clear

. 
. 
. ******* 1Ce ******* Table E3
. eststo clear

. 
. eststo: reg ln_pd1 ln_CEtech0 pc_lnar_lnas ln_abslat distcr1000 land100cr africa europe asia if cleanpdtech1iv==1, rob
> ust

Linear regression                               Number of obs     =         83
                                                F(8, 74)          =      18.86
                                                Prob > F          =     0.0000
                                                R-squared         =     0.5843
                                                Root MSE          =     1.0273

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      ln_pd1 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  ln_CEtech0 |    3.94712   .9832724     4.01   0.000     1.987907    5.906333
pc_lnar_lnas |    .350212    .171599     2.04   0.045     .0082936    .6921305
   ln_abslat |   .0833526    .170152     0.49   0.626    -.2556826    .4223879
  distcr1000 |  -.6251387   .4341115    -1.44   0.154    -1.490125    .2398474
   land100cr |   .1456156   .4241106     0.34   0.732    -.6994432    .9906744
      africa |   .0322283     .36719     0.09   0.930    -.6994138    .7638705
      europe |   .8526944   .3905493     2.18   0.032      .074508    1.630881
        asia |   1.052142   .3588238     2.93   0.004     .3371703    1.767114
       _cons |  -2.718806   .6006361    -4.53   0.000    -3.915599   -1.522012
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(est1 stored)

. eststo: spreg ml ln_pd1 ln_CEtech0 pc_lnar_lnas ln_abslat distcr1000 land100cr africa europe asia, dlmat(distmat) id(i
> d)
warning: spatial-weighting matrix in distmat contains 6 islands

Performing a grid search.... finished

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -97.613727  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -97.501625  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -97.501398  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -97.501398  

Optimizing unconcentrated log likelihood

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -97.501398  

Spatial autoregressive model                      Number of obs   =       83
(Maximum likelihood estimates)                    Wald chi2(8)    =  50.9072
                                                  Prob > chi2     =   0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      ln_pd1 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
ln_pd1       |
  ln_CEtech0 |   2.990004    .722106     4.14   0.000     1.574702    4.405305
pc_lnar_lnas |   .3185977   .0998653     3.19   0.001     .1228652    .5143302
   ln_abslat |   .0083701   .1075924     0.08   0.938    -.2025071    .2192474
  distcr1000 |  -.6925581   .3679101    -1.88   0.060    -1.413649    .0285324
   land100cr |  -.0029692    .336357    -0.01   0.993    -.6622169    .6562784
      africa |   .0082707   .2750884     0.03   0.976    -.5308926     .547434
      europe |   .0278963   .3548576     0.08   0.937    -.6676118    .7234045
        asia |   .2019024   .3204253     0.63   0.529    -.4261196    .8299245
       _cons |  -1.563551   .4762622    -3.28   0.001    -2.497008   -.6300946
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lambda       |
       _cons |   .5358424   .0724578     7.40   0.000     .3938278     .677857
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sigma2       |
       _cons |   .5340708    .086143     6.20   0.000     .3652336     .702908
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(est2 stored)

. eststo: ivregress 2sls ln_pd1 (ln_CEtech0 = plants animals) pc_lnar_lnas ln_abslat distcr1000 land100cr africa europe 
> asia if cleanpdtech1iv==1, robust 

Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression          Number of obs   =         83
                                                  Wald chi2(8)    =     102.50
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
                                                  R-squared       =     0.3200
                                                  Root MSE        =     1.2407

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      ln_pd1 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  ln_CEtech0 |   10.79753   2.857228     3.78   0.000     5.197463    16.39759
pc_lnar_lnas |   .4641402   .1819666     2.55   0.011     .1074923    .8207882
   ln_abslat |  -.0521168   .2135719    -0.24   0.807    -.4707101    .3664765
  distcr1000 |  -.6156294   .8336183    -0.74   0.460    -2.249491    1.018232
   land100cr |  -.1718609   .6420764    -0.27   0.789    -1.430307    1.086586
      africa |  -1.136976   .6783065    -1.68   0.094    -2.466433      .19248
      europe |  -.8203356   .8268849    -0.99   0.321       -2.441    .8003289
        asia |  -.3604115   .7109724    -0.51   0.612    -1.753892    1.033069
       _cons |  -4.770187   .9795927    -4.87   0.000    -6.690154   -2.850221
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:  ln_CEtech0
Instruments:   pc_lnar_lnas ln_abslat distcr1000 land100cr africa europe
               asia plants animals
(est3 stored)

. eststo: spivreg ln_pd1 pc_lnar_lnas ln_abslat distcr1000 land100cr africa europe asia (ln_CEtech0 = plants animals), d
> lmat(distmat) id(id)
warning: spatial-weighting matrix in distmat contains 6 islands

Spatial autoregressive model                      Number of obs   =       83
(GS2SLS estimates)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      ln_pd1 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
ln_pd1       |
  ln_CEtech0 |   3.541953   1.273341     2.78   0.005     1.046249    6.037656
pc_lnar_lnas |   .3268151   .1011776     3.23   0.001     .1285107    .5251195
   ln_abslat |  -.0083004   .1088508    -0.08   0.939    -.2216441    .2050432
  distcr1000 |  -.6958425   .3663926    -1.90   0.058    -1.413959    .0222739
   land100cr |  -.0403739   .3377146    -0.12   0.905    -.7022824    .6215345
      africa |  -.0974144   .3206512    -0.30   0.761    -.7258792    .5310504
      europe |  -.1717792   .4245793    -0.40   0.686    -1.003939    .6603809
        asia |   .0238851   .3804877     0.06   0.950     -.721857    .7696272
       _cons |  -1.675597   .6242852    -2.68   0.007    -2.899174   -.4520206
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lambda       |
       _cons |   .5686832   .1169143     4.86   0.000     .3395355     .797831
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:  ln_CEtech0
Instruments:   plants animals
(est4 stored)

. 
. 
. esttab using "Table_E3.tex", label se star(* 0.1 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) r2 replace 
(note: file Table_E3.tex not found)
(output written to Table_E3.tex)

. 
end of do-file

. 
. log close
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/florianhollenbach/Dropbox/SpatialNotSutva/Replication/Application/log_file_Applications.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:  16 Oct 2018, 10:28:04
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
